Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach Statistics & Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC

Aug 21, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.42

3 1.18

xG Accuracy: 41%

Cambrian & Clydach

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC Cambrian & Clydach ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4039274

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Cambrian & Clydach win · Haverfordwest County AFC 0–3 Cambrian & Clydach

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cambrian & Clydach (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Haverfordwest County AFC (1X2)	41.0	52.8	-11.8
Draw (1X2)	29.4	22.8	+6.6
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2)	29.6	24.4	+5.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.1	-7.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.9	+7.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.9%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Haverfordwest County AFC (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Draw (1X2)	3.93	3.93
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Haverfordwest County AFC 1.42 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	The New Saints	7	6	1	0	19
2	Barry Town	7	6	0	1	18
3	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	5	1	1	16
4	Caernarfon Town	7	5	0	2	15
5	Llandudno	7	5	0	2	15
6	Penybont	7	4	3	0	15
7	Cardiff MET	7	4	1	2	13
8	Airbus UK	7	4	0	3	12
9	Colwyn Bay	7	3	1	3	10
10	Cambrian & Clydach	7	2	3	2	9
11	Briton Ferry	7	2	1	4	7
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	1	1	5	4
13	Ammanford AFC	7	0	2	5	2
14	Trefelin	7	0	2	5	2
15	Flint Town United	7	0	1	6	1
16	Holywell	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	18	5	+13	16
2	Caernarfon Town	7	18	9	+9	15
3	Cardiff MET	7	18	9	+9	13
4	The New Saints	7	17	3	+14	19
5	Barry Town	7	17	8	+9	18
6	Llandudno	7	15	7	+8	15
7	Airbus UK	7	13	9	+4	12
8	Penybont	7	11	5	+6	15
9	Cambrian & Clydach	7	10	10	0	9
10	Holywell	7	10	27	-17	1
11	Colwyn Bay	7	8	11	-3	10
12	Flint Town United	7	6	14	-8	1
13	Briton Ferry	7	5	12	-7	7
14	Ammanford AFC	7	4	16	-12	2
15	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	3	13	-10	4
16	Trefelin	7	3	18	-15	2