Statistics / Football / Denmark. 2. Division / FA 2000 vs Fremad Amager

FA 2000 vs Fremad Amager Statistics & Analysis

FA 2000 FA 2000
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Fremad Amager Fremad Amager
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fremad Amager Fremad Amager ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10083529

Closing Odds 2.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fremad Amager win · FA 2000 1–2 Fremad Amager
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FA 2000 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FA 2000 (1X2) 34.7 31.8 +2.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.2 +3.5
Fremad Amager (1X2) 35.6 42.0 -6.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.5 -6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.5 +6.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.5%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FA 2000 (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.49 3.49 0.0
Fremad Amager (1X2) 2.18 2.18 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Division
  • Fixture: FA 2000 vs Fremad Amager
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): FA 2000 1.29 — Fremad Amager 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Division 2. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nykobing FC 9 6 3 0 21
2 VSK Århus 9 5 3 1 18
3 Roskilde 9 3 6 0 15
4 Fremad Amager 9 3 5 1 14
5 Middelfart 8 3 4 1 13
6 Naestved 8 3 4 1 13
7 B 93 9 3 3 3 12
8 Skive 9 3 2 4 11
9 HIK 9 2 2 5 8
10 Brabrand 9 1 3 5 6
11 FA 2000 9 1 2 6 5
12 Thisted FC 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nykobing FC 9 24 10 +14 21
2 Roskilde 9 16 10 +6 15
3 Middelfart 8 15 8 +7 13
4 VSK Århus 9 14 5 +9 18
5 Fremad Amager 9 13 12 +1 14
6 B 93 9 13 13 0 12
7 Naestved 8 11 9 +2 13
8 Skive 9 11 12 -1 11
9 Brabrand 9 10 18 -8 6
10 FA 2000 9 10 21 -11 5
11 HIK 9 8 16 -8 8
12 Thisted FC 9 8 19 -11 4
2. Division Denmark. 2. Division Predictions