Statistics / Football / Germany. Bundesliga / FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Statistics & Analysis

FC Augsburg FC Augsburg
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.81
2 2.22
xG Accuracy: 89%
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bayer Leverkusen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7437826

Closing Odds 3.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.84 percentage points on Bayer Leverkusen (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Augsburg (1X2) 31.1 25.9 +5.2
Draw (1X2) 22.1 23.8 -1.7
Bayer Leverkusen (1X2) 46.7 50.3 -3.5
Over 2.5 goals 76.6 67.9 +8.7
Under 2.5 goals 23.4 32.1 -8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 67.9%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Augsburg (1X2) 3.84 3.74 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 4.07 4.08 +0.1
Bayer Leverkusen (1X2) 1.89 1.93 -0.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.41 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.92 2.98 -0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.1% · Draw 22.1% · Away 46.7%
  • xG (showing): FC Augsburg 1.81 — Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 (total xG ≈ 4.03)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.6% · Implied: 67.2% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borussia Dortmund 4 4 0 0 12
2 Bayern München 4 3 1 0 10
3 SC Freiburg 4 3 1 0 10
4 FC Augsburg 4 2 1 1 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 7
6 FSV Mainz 05 4 2 1 1 7
7 SV Elversberg 4 2 1 1 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 5
11 FC Schalke 04 4 1 2 1 5
12 SC Paderborn 07 4 1 1 2 4
13 1.FC Köln 4 1 1 2 4
14 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 3
16 Hamburger SV 4 1 0 3 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 4 14 2 +12 10
2 SC Freiburg 4 12 3 +9 10
3 FC Augsburg 4 11 6 +5 7
4 Bayer Leverkusen 4 10 5 +5 7
5 FSV Mainz 05 4 10 6 +4 7
6 Borussia Dortmund 4 9 2 +7 12
7 RB Leipzig 4 9 5 +4 6
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 9 10 -1 5
9 SV Elversberg 4 8 7 +1 7
10 Werder Bremen 4 8 8 0 7
11 1899 Hoffenheim 4 7 10 -3 3
12 1.FC Köln 4 6 9 -3 4
13 VfB Stuttgart 4 6 9 -3 3
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 6 16 -10 0
15 Union Berlin 4 4 17 -13 1
16 FC Schalke 04 4 3 4 -1 5
17 SC Paderborn 07 4 3 5 -2 4
18 Hamburger SV 4 2 13 -11 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 RB Leipzig 4 4.0 0.9 +3.1 6
2 Bayern München 4 3.9 0.9 +3.0 10
3 SC Freiburg 4 1.9 0.5 +1.4 10
4 FC Augsburg 4 4.7 3.8 +0.9 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 1.9 1.1 +0.8 7
6 Borussia Dortmund 4 1.4 0.7 +0.7 12
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 3.6 3.0 +0.6 5
8 Union Berlin 4 1.9 1.4 +0.5 1
9 FSV Mainz 05 4 1.2 0.8 +0.4 7
10 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1.8 1.7 +0.1 3
11 1.FC Köln 4 1.7 1.8 -0.1 4
12 SC Paderborn 07 4 0.8 1.2 -0.4 4
13 Hamburger SV 4 0.7 1.4 -0.7 3
14 SV Elversberg 4 1.1 1.9 -0.8 7
15 Werder Bremen 4 0.5 1.9 -1.4 7
16 FC Schalke 04 4 1.5 3.5 -2.0 5
17 VfB Stuttgart 4 0.9 3.9 -3.0 3
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0.9 4.0 -3.1 0