Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Statistics & Analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.93

0 1.51

xG Accuracy: 49%

SC Paderborn 07

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7437706

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Borussia Dortmund win · Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.98 percentage points on Borussia Dortmund (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SC Paderborn 07 (1X2) by about 19.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Borussia Dortmund (1X2)	46.5	75.7	-29.2
Draw (1X2)	24.4	14.5	+9.9
SC Paderborn 07 (1X2)	29.1	9.8	+19.3
Over 2.5 goals	66.8	70.2	-3.4
Under 2.5 goals	33.2	29.8	+3.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.1% on SC Paderborn 07 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.8%. The difference — about 19.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Borussia Dortmund (1X2)	1.23	1.27	-2.0
Draw (1X2)	7.02	6.62	+0.9
SC Paderborn 07 (1X2)	10.95	9.81	+1.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.33	1.36	-1.0
Under 2.5 goals	3.3	3.21	+1.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Bundesliga
Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 46.5% · Draw 24.4% · Away 29.1%
xG (showing): Borussia Dortmund 1.93 — SC Paderborn 07 1.51 (total xG ≈ 3.44)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	4
13	1.FC Köln	4	1	1	2	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern München	4	14	2	+12	10
2	SC Freiburg	4	12	3	+9	10
3	FC Augsburg	4	11	6	+5	7
4	Bayer Leverkusen	4	10	5	+5	7
5	FSV Mainz 05	4	10	6	+4	7
6	Borussia Dortmund	4	9	2	+7	12
7	RB Leipzig	4	9	5	+4	6
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	9	10	-1	5
9	SV Elversberg	4	8	7	+1	7
10	Werder Bremen	4	8	8	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim	4	7	10	-3	3
12	1.FC Köln	4	6	9	-3	4
13	VfB Stuttgart	4	6	9	-3	3
14	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	6	16	-10	0
15	Union Berlin	4	4	17	-13	1
16	FC Schalke 04	4	3	4	-1	5
17	SC Paderborn 07	4	3	5	-2	4
18	Hamburger SV	4	2	13	-11	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	RB Leipzig	4	4.0	0.9	+3.1	6
2	Bayern München	4	3.9	0.9	+3.0	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	1.9	0.5	+1.4	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	4.7	3.8	+0.9	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	1.9	1.1	+0.8	7
6	Borussia Dortmund	4	1.4	0.7	+0.7	12
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	3.6	3.0	+0.6	5
8	Union Berlin	4	1.9	1.4	+0.5	1
9	FSV Mainz 05	4	1.2	0.8	+0.4	7
10	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1.8	1.7	+0.1	3
11	1.FC Köln	4	1.7	1.8	-0.1	4
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	0.8	1.2	-0.4	4
13	Hamburger SV	4	0.7	1.4	-0.7	3
14	SV Elversberg	4	1.1	1.9	-0.8	7
15	Werder Bremen	4	0.5	1.9	-1.4	7
16	FC Schalke 04	4	1.5	3.5	-2.0	5
17	VfB Stuttgart	4	0.9	3.9	-3.0	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0.9	4.0	-3.1	0