Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie Women / Twente W vs Utrecht W

Twente W vs Utrecht W Statistics & Analysis

Twente W Twente W
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:15
2 1.42
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 62%
Utrecht W Utrecht W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Twente W Twente W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11678141

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Twente W win · Twente W 2–0 Utrecht W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eredivisie Women
  • Fixture: Twente W vs Utrecht W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Twente W 1.42 — Utrecht W 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Women Eredivisie Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Twente W 6 6 0 0 18
2 Ajax W 6 5 0 1 15
3 AZ 6 4 0 2 12
4 PSV/Eindhoven W 6 3 1 2 10
5 Heerenveen W 6 2 1 3 7
6 ADO Den Haag W 6 2 1 3 7
7 PEC Zwolle W 6 2 0 4 6
8 De Graafschap W 6 2 0 4 6
9 Feyenoord W 6 2 0 4 6
10 Utrecht W 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Twente W 6 27 3 +24 18
2 Ajax W 6 16 5 +11 15
3 PSV/Eindhoven W 6 14 8 +6 10
4 ADO Den Haag W 6 12 22 -10 7
5 PEC Zwolle W 6 11 15 -4 6
6 Heerenveen W 6 9 11 -2 7
7 AZ 6 9 13 -4 12
8 Feyenoord W 6 8 16 -8 6
9 De Graafschap W 6 7 12 -5 6
10 Utrecht W 6 4 12 -8 1