Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie Women / PSV/Eindhoven W vs De Graafschap W

PSV/Eindhoven W vs De Graafschap W Statistics & Analysis

PSV/Eindhoven W PSV/Eindhoven W
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.53
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 38%
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De Graafschap W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 PSV/Eindhoven W PSV/Eindhoven W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10083425

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result PSV/Eindhoven W win · PSV/Eindhoven W 4–0 De Graafschap W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eredivisie Women
  • Fixture: PSV/Eindhoven W vs De Graafschap W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): PSV/Eindhoven W 1.53 — De Graafschap W 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Women Eredivisie Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Twente W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Ajax W 5 4 0 1 12
3 AZ 5 4 0 1 12
4 PSV/Eindhoven W 5 2 1 2 7
5 ADO Den Haag W 5 2 1 2 7
6 De Graafschap W 5 2 0 3 6
7 Feyenoord W 5 2 0 3 6
8 Heerenveen W 5 1 1 3 4
9 PEC Zwolle W 5 1 0 4 3
10 Utrecht W 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Twente W 5 22 3 +19 15
2 ADO Den Haag W 5 11 15 -4 7
3 PSV/Eindhoven W 5 10 8 +2 7
4 Ajax W 5 9 4 +5 12
5 AZ 5 9 8 +1 12
6 PEC Zwolle W 5 8 13 -5 3
7 De Graafschap W 5 7 8 -1 6
8 Heerenveen W 5 7 11 -4 4
9 Feyenoord W 5 6 13 -7 6
10 Utrecht W 5 4 10 -6 1