Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca U20 / Botafogo U20 vs Maricá U20

Botafogo U20 vs Maricá U20 Statistics & Analysis

Botafogo U20 Botafogo U20
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
4 1.53
1 1.07
xG Accuracy: 50%
Maricá U20 Maricá U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Botafogo U20 Botafogo U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11257789

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Botafogo U20 win · Botafogo U20 4–1 Maricá U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca U20
  • Fixture: Botafogo U20 vs Maricá U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): Botafogo U20 1.53 — Maricá U20 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca U20 Carioca U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo U20 9 8 0 1 24
2 Fluminense U20 9 7 2 0 23
3 Vasco da Gama U20 9 7 1 1 22
4 Sampaio Correa FE U20 9 4 2 3 14
5 Botafogo U20 8 3 2 3 11
6 Madureira U20 9 1 6 2 9
7 Boavista U20 9 2 3 4 9
8 Maricá U20 9 2 2 5 8
9 Bangu U20 8 2 2 4 8
10 Nova Iguaçu U20 9 1 4 4 7
11 Portuguesa RJ U20 9 1 2 6 5
12 Volta Redonda U20 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo U20 9 25 8 +17 24
2 Fluminense U20 9 23 7 +16 23
3 Vasco da Gama U20 9 17 6 +11 22
4 Botafogo U20 8 14 11 +3 11
5 Sampaio Correa FE U20 9 12 17 -5 14
6 Maricá U20 9 11 15 -4 8
7 Boavista U20 9 11 16 -5 9
8 Madureira U20 9 10 13 -3 9
9 Nova Iguaçu U20 9 10 17 -7 7
10 Bangu U20 8 7 11 -4 8
11 Volta Redonda U20 9 7 18 -11 5
12 Portuguesa RJ U20 9 6 14 -8 5
Carioca U20 Brazil. Carioca U20 Predictions