Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca U20 / Fluminense U20 vs Botafogo U20

Fluminense U20 vs Botafogo U20 Statistics & Analysis

Fluminense U20 Fluminense U20
Sep 16, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 42%
Botafogo U20 Botafogo U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Botafogo U20 Fluminense U20 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7432994

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fluminense U20 win · Fluminense U20 3–0 Botafogo U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca U20
  • Fixture: Fluminense U20 vs Botafogo U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Fluminense U20 1.22 — Botafogo U20 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca U20 Carioca U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fluminense U20 8 7 1 0 22
2 Flamengo U20 8 7 0 1 21
3 Vasco da Gama U20 7 6 0 1 18
4 Sampaio Correa FE U20 7 3 2 2 11
5 Botafogo U20 7 2 2 3 8
6 Boavista U20 7 2 2 3 8
7 Madureira U20 6 1 4 1 7
8 Bangu U20 7 2 1 4 7
9 Maricá U20 7 1 2 4 5
10 Nova Iguaçu U20 7 1 2 4 5
11 Portuguesa RJ U20 8 1 2 5 5
12 Volta Redonda U20 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fluminense U20 8 22 6 +16 22
2 Flamengo U20 8 22 8 +14 21
3 Vasco da Gama U20 7 15 5 +10 18
4 Botafogo U20 7 10 10 0 8
5 Maricá U20 7 9 11 -2 5
6 Boavista U20 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sampaio Correa FE U20 7 9 13 -4 11
8 Madureira U20 6 7 9 -2 7
9 Nova Iguaçu U20 7 7 14 -7 5
10 Bangu U20 7 6 10 -4 7
11 Portuguesa RJ U20 8 4 11 -7 5
12 Volta Redonda U20 7 4 15 -11 2
Carioca U20 Brazil. Carioca U20 Predictions