Statistics / Football / France. National 1 / La Roche VF vs Aubagne

La Roche VF vs Aubagne Statistics & Analysis

La Roche VF La Roche VF
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:45
3 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Aubagne Aubagne
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 La Roche VF La Roche VF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11260613

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result La Roche VF win · La Roche VF 3–1 Aubagne
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: La Roche VF vs Aubagne
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): La Roche VF 1.35 — Aubagne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 8 5 3 0 18
2 Rouen 8 5 2 1 17
3 Caen 8 5 0 3 15
4 Concarneau 8 3 4 1 13
5 Versailles 8 4 1 3 13
6 Amiens 8 3 3 2 12
7 Cannes 8 2 6 0 12
8 Thionville Lusitanos 8 3 3 2 12
9 Gobelins 8 3 3 2 12
10 Bastia 9 3 2 4 11
11 Quevilly 8 2 4 2 10
12 Le Puy Foot 8 3 1 4 10
13 Orleans 9 2 3 4 9
14 Fleury 91 8 2 3 3 9
15 Valenciennes 8 2 2 4 8
16 Aubagne 8 2 1 5 7
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 8 1 2 5 5
18 Villefranche 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 8 15 5 +10 17
2 Caen 8 15 9 +6 15
3 Thionville Lusitanos 8 14 13 +1 12
4 La Roche VF 8 12 7 +5 18
5 Fleury 91 8 12 10 +2 9
6 Versailles 8 12 12 0 13
7 Concarneau 8 10 7 +3 13
8 Le Puy Foot 8 10 9 +1 10
9 Amiens 8 9 3 +6 12
10 Valenciennes 8 9 13 -4 8
11 Cannes 8 8 3 +5 12
12 Quevilly 8 7 9 -2 10
13 Bastia 9 7 11 -4 11
14 Orleans 9 7 11 -4 9
15 Villefranche 8 7 19 -12 4
16 Gobelins 8 6 7 -1 12
17 Aubagne 8 5 9 -4 7
18 Bourg-en-bresse 01 8 5 13 -8 5