Statistics / Football / France. National 1 / Gobelins vs Bastia

Gobelins vs Bastia Statistics & Analysis

Gobelins Gobelins
Sep 26, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bastia Bastia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bastia Gobelins ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10118656

Closing Odds 2.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gobelins win · Gobelins 1–0 Bastia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.58 percentage points on Bastia (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bastia (1X2) by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gobelins (1X2) 31.5 37.8 -6.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.9 -0.3
Bastia (1X2) 39.0 32.3 +6.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.7 +6.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.3 -6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Bastia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.3%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gobelins (1X2) 2.55 2.52 +0.4
Draw (1X2) 3.21 3.19 +0.2
Bastia (1X2) 2.9 2.95 -0.6
Over 2.5 goals 2.29 2.29 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Gobelins vs Bastia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Gobelins 1.22 — Bastia 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rouen 8 5 2 1 17
2 Caen 8 5 0 3 15
3 La Roche VF 7 4 3 0 15
4 Concarneau 7 3 3 1 12
5 Thionville Lusitanos 7 3 3 1 12
6 Amiens 7 3 2 2 11
7 Cannes 7 2 5 0 11
8 Versailles 7 3 1 3 10
9 Le Puy Foot 7 3 1 3 10
10 Bastia 7 3 1 3 10
11 Gobelins 7 2 3 2 9
12 Quevilly 7 2 3 2 9
13 Fleury 91 7 2 3 2 9
14 Orleans 7 2 1 4 7
15 Valenciennes 7 1 2 4 5
16 Aubagne 7 1 1 5 4
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 1 1 5 4
18 Villefranche 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 8 15 5 +10 17
2 Caen 8 15 9 +6 15
3 Thionville Lusitanos 7 13 11 +2 12
4 Fleury 91 7 11 8 +3 9
5 La Roche VF 7 10 6 +4 15
6 Versailles 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Concarneau 7 9 6 +3 12
8 Le Puy Foot 7 9 7 +2 10
9 Amiens 7 8 2 +6 11
10 Cannes 7 8 3 +5 11
11 Valenciennes 7 7 12 -5 5
12 Quevilly 7 6 8 -2 9
13 Bastia 7 6 9 -3 10
14 Orleans 7 6 10 -4 7
15 Villefranche 7 6 17 -11 4
16 Gobelins 7 5 7 -2 9
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 4 12 -8 4
18 Aubagne 7 3 8 -5 4
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions