Statistics / Football / France. National 1 / Orleans vs Cannes

Orleans vs Cannes Statistics & Analysis

Orleans Orleans
Sep 26, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 49%
Cannes Cannes
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Orleans Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10118631

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Orleans 0–0 Cannes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orleans (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orleans (1X2) by about 5.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orleans (1X2) 37.6 31.9 +5.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.0 -1.5
Cannes (1X2) 32.9 37.1 -4.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.7 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.3 -0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Orleans (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.9%. The difference — about 5.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Orleans (1X2) 2.99 2.99 -0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.07 -0.1
Cannes (1X2) 2.58 2.57 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Orleans vs Cannes
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Orleans 1.35 — Cannes 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rouen 8 5 2 1 17
2 Caen 8 5 0 3 15
3 La Roche VF 7 4 3 0 15
4 Concarneau 7 3 3 1 12
5 Thionville Lusitanos 7 3 3 1 12
6 Amiens 7 3 2 2 11
7 Cannes 7 2 5 0 11
8 Versailles 7 3 1 3 10
9 Le Puy Foot 7 3 1 3 10
10 Bastia 7 3 1 3 10
11 Gobelins 7 2 3 2 9
12 Quevilly 7 2 3 2 9
13 Fleury 91 7 2 3 2 9
14 Orleans 7 2 1 4 7
15 Valenciennes 7 1 2 4 5
16 Aubagne 7 1 1 5 4
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 1 1 5 4
18 Villefranche 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 8 15 5 +10 17
2 Caen 8 15 9 +6 15
3 Thionville Lusitanos 7 13 11 +2 12
4 Fleury 91 7 11 8 +3 9
5 La Roche VF 7 10 6 +4 15
6 Versailles 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Concarneau 7 9 6 +3 12
8 Le Puy Foot 7 9 7 +2 10
9 Amiens 7 8 2 +6 11
10 Cannes 7 8 3 +5 11
11 Valenciennes 7 7 12 -5 5
12 Quevilly 7 6 8 -2 9
13 Bastia 7 6 9 -3 10
14 Orleans 7 6 10 -4 7
15 Villefranche 7 6 17 -11 4
16 Gobelins 7 5 7 -2 9
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 4 12 -8 4
18 Aubagne 7 3 8 -5 4
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions