Statistics / Football / Austria. Frauenliga / Sturm Graz W vs Austria Wien W

Sturm Graz W vs Austria Wien W Statistics & Analysis

Sturm Graz W Sturm Graz W
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 63%
Austria Wien W Austria Wien W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Austria Wien W Austria Wien W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10096650

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Austria Wien W win · Sturm Graz W 0–2 Austria Wien W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sturm Graz W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sturm Graz W (1X2) by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sturm Graz W (1X2) 27.5 16.9 +10.6
Draw (1X2) 29.2 23.1 +6.1
Austria Wien W (1X2) 43.3 60.0 -16.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.1 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.9 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Sturm Graz W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.9%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sturm Graz W (1X2) 5.25 5.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Austria Wien W (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Frauenliga
  • Fixture: Sturm Graz W vs Austria Wien W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Sturm Graz W 1.13 — Austria Wien W 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Frauenliga Frauenliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St. Pölten W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Sturm Graz W 7 6 1 0 19
3 Austria Wien W 6 4 1 1 13
4 Rheindorf Altach 6 3 1 2 10
5 Salzburg W 8 3 1 4 10
6 LASK 8 2 2 4 8
7 First Vienna W 8 1 4 3 7
8 SK Rapid W 7 1 3 3 6
9 Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 8 1 1 6 4
10 Südburgenland W 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 St. Pölten W 7 25 2 +23 21
2 Sturm Graz W 7 20 4 +16 19
3 Austria Wien W 6 17 2 +15 13
4 Rheindorf Altach 6 12 12 0 10
5 First Vienna W 8 11 17 -6 7
6 LASK 8 9 14 -5 8
7 SK Rapid W 7 8 11 -3 6
8 Salzburg W 8 6 14 -8 10
9 Südburgenland W 7 5 23 -18 2
10 Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 8 4 18 -14 4
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