Statistics / Football / Austria. Frauenliga / First Vienna W vs St. Pölten W

First Vienna W vs St. Pölten W Statistics & Analysis

First Vienna W First Vienna W
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.08
4 1.52
xG Accuracy: 50%
St. Pölten W St. Pölten W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 St. Pölten W St. Pölten W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7444755

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result St. Pölten W win · First Vienna W 1–4 St. Pölten W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices First Vienna W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on First Vienna W (1X2) by about 16.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
First Vienna W (1X2) 25.4 9.2 +16.2
Draw (1X2) 28.8 16.9 +11.9
St. Pölten W (1X2) 45.8 74.0 -28.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.0 -13.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.0 +13.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.4% on First Vienna W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.2%. The difference — about 16.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
First Vienna W (1X2) 9.69 9.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.26 5.26 0.0
St. Pölten W (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.4 2.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Frauenliga
  • Fixture: First Vienna W vs St. Pölten W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Away 45.8%
  • xG (showing): First Vienna W 1.08 — St. Pölten W 1.52 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Frauenliga Frauenliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St. Pölten W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Sturm Graz W 7 6 1 0 19
3 Austria Wien W 6 4 1 1 13
4 Rheindorf Altach 6 3 1 2 10
5 Salzburg W 8 3 1 4 10
6 LASK 8 2 2 4 8
7 First Vienna W 8 1 4 3 7
8 SK Rapid W 7 1 3 3 6
9 Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 8 1 1 6 4
10 Südburgenland W 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 St. Pölten W 7 25 2 +23 21
2 Sturm Graz W 7 20 4 +16 19
3 Austria Wien W 6 17 2 +15 13
4 Rheindorf Altach 6 12 12 0 10
5 First Vienna W 8 11 17 -6 7
6 LASK 8 9 14 -5 8
7 SK Rapid W 7 8 11 -3 6
8 Salzburg W 8 6 14 -8 10
9 Südburgenland W 7 5 23 -18 2
10 Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 8 4 18 -14 4
Frauenliga Austria. Frauenliga Predictions