Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Paradiso vs Lugano II

Paradiso vs Lugano II Statistics & Analysis

Paradiso Paradiso
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Lugano II Lugano II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paradiso Paradiso ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242304

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paradiso win · Paradiso 1–0 Lugano II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Paradiso vs Lugano II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Paradiso 1.39 — Lugano II 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Biel-Bienne 10 8 1 1 25
2 FC Schaffhausen 11 8 1 2 25
3 Cham 11 7 1 3 22
4 Bulle 11 6 3 2 21
5 Paradiso 11 6 2 3 20
6 YF Juventus 11 6 1 4 19
7 Grand-Saconnex 11 6 0 5 18
8 Amical Saint-Prex 11 5 1 5 16
9 Basel II 10 5 0 5 15
10 Zürich II 11 4 3 4 15
11 Breitenrain 11 4 3 4 15
12 Brühl 11 4 2 5 14
13 Kreuzlingen 10 3 3 4 12
14 Young Boys II 11 3 2 6 11
15 Lugano II 10 3 0 7 9
16 Bavois 11 2 2 7 8
17 Luzern II 11 2 1 8 7
18 Bellinzona 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Schaffhausen 11 29 13 +16 25
2 Bulle 11 24 16 +8 21
3 Biel-Bienne 10 23 10 +13 25
4 Paradiso 11 22 11 +11 20
5 Young Boys II 11 21 30 -9 11
6 Zürich II 11 20 20 0 15
7 Cham 11 19 14 +5 22
8 Grand-Saconnex 11 19 15 +4 18
9 Basel II 10 19 19 0 15
10 YF Juventus 11 16 14 +2 19
11 Amical Saint-Prex 11 16 22 -6 16
12 Breitenrain 11 15 17 -2 15
13 Lugano II 10 15 22 -7 9
14 Luzern II 11 15 27 -12 7
15 Kreuzlingen 10 13 13 0 12
16 Brühl 11 13 15 -2 14
17 Bavois 11 10 14 -4 8
18 Bellinzona 11 7 24 -17 5
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions