Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Basel II vs Luzern II

Basel II vs Luzern II Statistics & Analysis

Basel II Basel II
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 52%
Luzern II Luzern II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Basel II Basel II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236544

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Basel II win · Basel II 3–2 Luzern II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Basel II vs Luzern II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Basel II 1.36 — Luzern II 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Biel-Bienne 10 8 1 1 25
2 FC Schaffhausen 10 7 1 2 22
3 Bulle 10 6 2 2 20
4 Paradiso 10 6 1 3 19
5 Cham 10 6 1 3 19
6 Grand-Saconnex 10 6 0 4 18
7 YF Juventus 10 5 1 4 16
8 Basel II 10 5 0 5 15
9 Zürich II 10 4 2 4 14
10 Breitenrain 10 4 2 4 14
11 Amical Saint-Prex 10 4 1 5 13
12 Kreuzlingen 10 3 3 4 12
13 Brühl 10 3 2 5 11
14 Young Boys II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Lugano II 10 3 0 7 9
16 Bavois 10 2 2 6 8
17 Luzern II 10 2 1 7 7
18 Bellinzona 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Biel-Bienne 10 23 10 +13 25
2 Bulle 10 22 14 +8 20
3 FC Schaffhausen 10 21 13 +8 22
4 Paradiso 10 20 9 +11 19
5 Young Boys II 10 20 27 -7 11
6 Grand-Saconnex 10 19 14 +5 18
7 Basel II 10 19 19 0 15
8 Zürich II 10 18 18 0 14
9 Cham 10 16 13 +3 19
10 Luzern II 10 15 19 -4 7
11 Lugano II 10 15 22 -7 9
12 YF Juventus 10 14 14 0 16
13 Amical Saint-Prex 10 14 22 -8 13
14 Kreuzlingen 10 13 13 0 12
15 Breitenrain 10 13 15 -2 14
16 Brühl 10 12 15 -3 11
17 Bavois 10 10 12 -2 8
18 Bellinzona 10 7 22 -15 5
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions