Cham vs Brühl Statistics & Analysis

Cham

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.27

1 1.33

xG Accuracy: 75%

Brühl

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Brühl Cham ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8683524

Closing Odds 2.24

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Cham win · Cham 2–1 Brühl

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Brühl (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Cham (1X2)	33.8	40.9	-7.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.6	+4.1
Brühl (1X2)	36.6	33.5	+3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 4.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Cham (1X2)	2.24	2.24
Draw (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Brühl (1X2)	2.73	2.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga Promotion
Fixture: Cham vs Brühl
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Cham 1.27 — Brühl 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.7% · Probability edge: +20.1 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Liga Promotion — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	8	6	1	1	19
2	Bulle	8	5	2	1	17
3	FC Schaffhausen	8	5	1	2	16
4	Cham	8	5	1	2	16
5	Grand-Saconnex	8	5	0	3	15
6	Paradiso	8	4	1	3	13
7	YF Juventus	8	4	0	4	12
8	Brühl	8	3	2	3	11
9	Young Boys II	8	3	2	3	11
10	Zürich II	7	3	1	3	10
11	Breitenrain	8	3	1	4	10
12	Amical Saint-Prex	8	3	1	4	10
13	Basel II	8	3	0	5	9
14	Lugano II	8	3	0	5	9
15	Bavois	7	2	2	3	8
16	Kreuzlingen	7	2	1	4	7
17	Luzern II	7	1	1	5	4
18	Bellinzona	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	8	19	9	+10	19
2	Bulle	8	18	11	+7	17
3	Paradiso	8	17	9	+8	13
4	Grand-Saconnex	8	17	12	+5	15
5	Young Boys II	8	17	19	-2	11
6	Lugano II	8	15	20	-5	9
7	FC Schaffhausen	8	14	10	+4	16
8	Basel II	8	14	17	-3	9
9	Cham	8	13	9	+4	16
10	Brühl	8	12	10	+2	11
11	YF Juventus	8	12	13	-1	12
12	Zürich II	7	11	14	-3	10
13	Bavois	7	10	8	+2	8
14	Breitenrain	8	10	13	-3	10
15	Luzern II	7	10	13	-3	4
16	Amical Saint-Prex	8	10	18	-8	10
17	Kreuzlingen	7	7	10	-3	7
18	Bellinzona	8	5	16	-11	4