Mattersburg SV 2020 vs Parndorf Statistics & Analysis

⚽

Mattersburg SV 2020

Oct 03, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.22

0 1.38

xG Accuracy: 64%

Parndorf

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Parndorf Mattersburg SV 2020 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11249724

Closing Odds 3.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Mattersburg SV 2020 win · Mattersburg SV 2020 1–0 Parndorf

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mattersburg SV 2020 (1X2)	31.5	31.5	-0.0
Draw (1X2)	29.5	26.1	+3.4
Parndorf (1X2)	39.0	42.3	-3.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.3	-11.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.7	+11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.7%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Mattersburg SV 2020 (1X2)	2.82	2.82
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Parndorf (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	2.24	2.24

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Ost
Fixture: Mattersburg SV 2020 vs Parndorf
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Mattersburg SV 2020 1.22 — Parndorf 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.3% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Mattersburg SV 2020 & Parndorf!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	10	7	1	2	22
2	Oberwart	10	7	0	3	21
3	Wiener SC	10	6	1	3	19
4	Traiskirchen	10	5	2	3	17
5	Wiener Viktoria	9	5	1	3	16
6	Scheiblingkirchen	9	4	3	2	15
7	Krems / Rehberg	10	4	2	4	14
8	Parndorf	9	4	2	3	14
9	Fach-Donaufeld	9	4	2	3	14
10	SV Horn	10	3	2	5	11
11	Leobendorf	9	3	2	4	11
12	Gloggnitz	10	3	2	5	11
13	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	3	1	5	10
14	Donau	9	2	4	3	10
15	Favoritner AC	10	3	1	6	10
16	Wienerberg	9	0	0	9	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	10	26	10	+16	22
2	Wiener SC	10	24	11	+13	19
3	Traiskirchen	10	23	20	+3	17
4	Oberwart	10	21	13	+8	21
5	Krems / Rehberg	10	17	15	+2	14
6	Wiener Viktoria	9	15	9	+6	16
7	Parndorf	9	15	13	+2	14
8	Scheiblingkirchen	9	15	16	-1	15
9	Donau	9	15	18	-3	10
10	SV Horn	10	14	15	-1	11
11	Gloggnitz	10	12	19	-7	11
12	Fach-Donaufeld	9	11	10	+1	14
13	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	11	13	-2	10
14	Leobendorf	9	10	13	-3	11
15	Favoritner AC	10	7	13	-6	10
16	Wienerberg	9	6	34	-28	0