Statistics / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Oberwart vs SV Horn

Oberwart vs SV Horn Statistics & Analysis

Oberwart Oberwart
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 59%
SV Horn SV Horn
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Oberwart Oberwart ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10977394

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Oberwart win · Oberwart 3–1 SV Horn
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), SV Horn (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Oberwart (1X2) 37.0 54.8 -17.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.4 +7.2
SV Horn (1X2) 33.4 22.8 +10.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.2 -14.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 37.8 +14.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.8%. The difference — about 14.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Oberwart (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.96 3.96 0.0
SV Horn (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.42 2.42 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Oberwart vs SV Horn
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Oberwart 1.34 — SV Horn 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 10 7 1 2 22
2 Oberwart 10 7 0 3 21
3 Wiener SC 10 6 1 3 19
4 Traiskirchen 10 5 2 3 17
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 5 1 3 16
6 Scheiblingkirchen 9 4 3 2 15
7 Krems / Rehberg 10 4 2 4 14
8 Parndorf 9 4 2 3 14
9 Fach-Donaufeld 9 4 2 3 14
10 SV Horn 10 3 2 5 11
11 Leobendorf 9 3 2 4 11
12 Gloggnitz 10 3 2 5 11
13 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 3 1 5 10
14 Donau 9 2 4 3 10
15 Favoritner AC 10 3 1 6 10
16 Wienerberg 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 10 26 10 +16 22
2 Wiener SC 10 24 11 +13 19
3 Traiskirchen 10 23 20 +3 17
4 Oberwart 10 21 13 +8 21
5 Krems / Rehberg 10 17 15 +2 14
6 Wiener Viktoria 9 15 9 +6 16
7 Parndorf 9 15 13 +2 14
8 Scheiblingkirchen 9 15 16 -1 15
9 Donau 9 15 18 -3 10
10 SV Horn 10 14 15 -1 11
11 Gloggnitz 10 12 19 -7 11
12 Fach-Donaufeld 9 11 10 +1 14
13 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 11 13 -2 10
14 Leobendorf 9 10 13 -3 11
15 Favoritner AC 10 7 13 -6 10
16 Wienerberg 9 6 34 -28 0
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions