Statistics / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Dornbirn vs Kitzbühel

Dornbirn vs Kitzbühel Statistics & Analysis

Dornbirn Dornbirn
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Kitzbühel Kitzbühel
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dornbirn Kitzbühel ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242133

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kitzbühel win · Dornbirn 0–2 Kitzbühel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kitzbühel (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dornbirn (1X2) 35.2 51.0 -15.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.9 +6.7
Kitzbühel (1X2) 35.2 26.0 +9.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.1 -15.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.9 +15.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Dornbirn (1X2) 1.74 1.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.87 3.87 0.0
Kitzbühel (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.54 2.54 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Dornbirn vs Kitzbühel
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Dornbirn 1.3 — Kitzbühel 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hohenems 10 9 0 1 27
2 Imst 10 7 1 2 22
3 Schwaz 10 7 1 2 22
4 Kitzbühel 10 7 0 3 21
5 Dornbirn 10 6 2 2 20
6 SK St. Johann 10 5 3 2 18
7 Swarovski Tirol II 9 5 1 3 16
8 Röthis 10 4 3 3 15
9 Fügen 10 4 1 5 13
10 SVG Reichenau 10 2 3 5 9
11 Lochau 10 2 2 6 8
12 Kufstein 10 1 4 5 7
13 Lustenau 10 1 4 5 7
14 Lauterach 9 1 3 5 6
15 Rheindorf Altach II 10 1 3 6 6
16 Wolfurt 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hohenems 10 27 9 +18 27
2 Dornbirn 10 23 10 +13 20
3 Kitzbühel 10 23 12 +11 21
4 Swarovski Tirol II 9 23 13 +10 16
5 Schwaz 10 23 16 +7 22
6 Fügen 10 20 26 -6 13
7 Röthis 10 19 18 +1 15
8 SK St. Johann 10 18 11 +7 18
9 Imst 10 17 7 +10 22
10 Rheindorf Altach II 10 15 25 -10 6
11 Lauterach 9 14 18 -4 6
12 Lochau 10 13 26 -13 8
13 Kufstein 10 12 17 -5 7
14 Wolfurt 10 12 29 -17 4
15 SVG Reichenau 10 10 18 -8 9
16 Lustenau 10 9 23 -14 7
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions