Kitzbühel vs Hohenems Statistics & Analysis

Kitzbühel

Sep 13, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.30

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Hohenems

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kitzbühel Hohenems ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7433245

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hohenems win · Kitzbühel 1–2 Hohenems

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Kitzbühel vs Hohenems
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Kitzbühel 1.3 — Hohenems 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Hohenems	8	7	0	1	21
2	Dornbirn	9	6	2	1	20
3	Imst	9	6	1	2	19
4	Schwaz	9	6	1	2	19
5	Kitzbühel	9	6	0	3	18
6	SK St. Johann	9	4	3	2	15
7	Swarovski Tirol II	8	4	1	3	13
8	Fügen	9	4	1	4	13
9	Röthis	8	3	3	2	12
10	SVG Reichenau	9	2	3	4	9
11	Kufstein	8	1	4	3	7
12	Lochau	9	2	1	6	7
13	Lauterach	9	1	3	5	6
14	Rheindorf Altach II	9	1	3	5	6
15	Lustenau	9	1	3	5	6
16	Wolfurt	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dornbirn	9	23	8	+15	20
2	Hohenems	8	22	7	+15	21
3	Kitzbühel	9	21	12	+9	18
4	Schwaz	9	21	15	+6	19
5	Swarovski Tirol II	8	19	10	+9	13
6	Fügen	9	19	21	-2	13
7	Imst	9	15	6	+9	19
8	Lauterach	9	14	18	-4	6
9	Rheindorf Altach II	9	14	23	-9	6
10	SK St. Johann	9	13	10	+3	15
11	Röthis	8	13	14	-1	12
12	Lochau	9	12	25	-13	7
13	Wolfurt	9	12	26	-14	4
14	Kufstein	8	10	12	-2	7
15	SVG Reichenau	9	9	16	-7	9
16	Lustenau	9	8	22	-14	6