Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Sevilla W vs FC Levante Badalona

Sevilla W vs FC Levante Badalona Statistics & Analysis

Sevilla W Sevilla W
Oct 03, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 39%
FC Levante Badalona FC Levante Badalona
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sevilla W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11220060

Closing Odds 2.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sevilla W 3–3 FC Levante Badalona
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sevilla W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 2.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sevilla W (1X2) 35.6 33.4 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.6 +1.1
FC Levante Badalona (1X2) 34.7 38.0 -3.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.1 -2.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.9 +2.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.9%. The difference — about 2.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sevilla W (1X2) 2.74 2.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
FC Levante Badalona (1X2) 2.41 2.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Sevilla W vs FC Levante Badalona
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Sevilla W 1.31 — FC Levante Badalona 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 4 1 0 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Eibar W 5 3 1 1 10
5 Athletic Club W 5 3 1 1 10
6 FC Levante Badalona 5 2 1 2 7
7 Edf Logrono W 5 2 0 3 6
8 Atletico Madrid W 5 2 0 3 6
9 Sevilla W 5 2 0 3 6
10 Granada 5 2 0 3 6
11 Deportivo Alavés 5 2 0 3 6
12 Espanyol W 5 1 2 2 5
13 Deportivo de La Coruña W 5 1 2 2 5
14 Granad. Tenerife W 5 1 2 2 5
15 Real Sociedad W 5 0 2 3 2
16 Valencia W 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 21 2 +19 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 13 6 +7 13
3 Athletic Club W 5 9 6 +3 10
4 Madrid CFF W 5 9 7 +2 12
5 Espanyol W 5 8 6 +2 5
6 Atletico Madrid W 5 8 10 -2 6
7 FC Levante Badalona 5 6 5 +1 7
8 Real Sociedad W 5 6 11 -5 2
9 Granada 5 5 9 -4 6
10 Eibar W 5 4 4 0 10
11 Deportivo de La Coruña W 5 4 4 0 5
12 Edf Logrono W 5 4 5 -1 6
13 Sevilla W 5 4 7 -3 6
14 Granad. Tenerife W 5 4 10 -6 5
15 Valencia W 5 4 12 -8 0
16 Deportivo Alavés 5 3 8 -5 6
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions