Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W Statistics & Analysis

Real Sociedad W

Sep 26, 2026 - 10:00

3 1.24

5 1.36

xG Accuracy: 23%

Real Madrid W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Madrid W Real Madrid W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10078572

Closing Odds 1.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Real Madrid W win · Real Sociedad W 3–5 Real Madrid W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Sociedad W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Sociedad W (1X2) by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Sociedad W (1X2)	32.4	22.4	+10.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.0	+4.6
Real Madrid W (1X2)	38.0	52.6	-14.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.8	-7.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.2	+7.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Real Sociedad W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.4%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Sociedad W (1X2)	4.09	4.09
Draw (1X2)	3.66	3.66
Real Madrid W (1X2)	1.74	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Real Sociedad W vs Real Madrid W
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Real Sociedad W 1.24 — Real Madrid W 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.2% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +15.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Real Madrid W	5	4	1	0	13
3	Madrid CFF W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Athletic Club W	4	2	1	1	7
5	FC Levante Badalona	5	2	1	2	7
6	Eibar W	4	2	1	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid W	4	2	0	2	6
8	Edf Logrono W	5	2	0	3	6
9	Sevilla W	4	2	0	2	6
10	Granada	5	2	0	3	6
11	Deportivo Alavés	5	2	0	3	6
12	Espanyol W	4	1	1	2	4
13	Deportivo de La Coruña W	4	1	1	2	4
14	Real Sociedad W	5	0	2	3	2
15	Granad. Tenerife W	4	0	2	2	2
16	Valencia W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	5	21	2	+19	15
2	Real Madrid W	5	13	6	+7	13
3	Madrid CFF W	5	9	7	+2	12
4	Espanyol W	4	7	5	+2	4
5	Athletic Club W	4	6	4	+2	7
6	FC Levante Badalona	5	6	5	+1	7
7	Atletico Madrid W	4	6	7	-1	6
8	Real Sociedad W	5	6	11	-5	2
9	Granada	5	5	9	-4	6
10	Edf Logrono W	5	4	5	-1	6
11	Sevilla W	4	4	6	-2	6
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	4	3	3	0	4
13	Eibar W	4	3	4	-1	7
14	Deportivo Alavés	5	3	8	-5	6
15	Valencia W	4	3	10	-7	0
16	Granad. Tenerife W	4	2	9	-7	2