Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Real Madrid W vs Valencia W

Real Madrid W vs Valencia W Statistics & Analysis

Real Madrid W Real Madrid W
Sep 19, 2026 - 18:30
3 1.57
1 1.03
xG Accuracy: 67%
Valencia W Valencia W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Madrid W Real Madrid W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8707945

Closing Odds 1.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Real Madrid W win · Real Madrid W 3–1 Valencia W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Valencia W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 20.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Madrid W (1X2) 48.3 87.0 -38.7
Draw (1X2) 28.4 8.4 +20.0
Valencia W (1X2) 23.3 4.6 +18.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.7 -19.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.3 +19.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.4%. The difference — about 20.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Madrid W (1X2) 1.07 1.07 0.0
Draw (1X2) 11.03 11.03 0.0
Valencia W (1X2) 20.35 20.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.87 2.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Real Madrid W; market prices Real Madrid W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Real Madrid W 1.57 xG vs Valencia W 1.03 → Real Madrid W 48.3%
  • Market: Real Madrid W ~87.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 4 1 0 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Athletic Club W 4 2 1 1 7
5 FC Levante Badalona 5 2 1 2 7
6 Eibar W 4 2 1 1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Edf Logrono W 5 2 0 3 6
9 Sevilla W 4 2 0 2 6
10 Granada 5 2 0 3 6
11 Deportivo Alavés 5 2 0 3 6
12 Espanyol W 4 1 1 2 4
13 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 1 1 2 4
14 Real Sociedad W 5 0 2 3 2
15 Granad. Tenerife W 4 0 2 2 2
16 Valencia W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 21 2 +19 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 13 6 +7 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 9 7 +2 12
4 Espanyol W 4 7 5 +2 4
5 Athletic Club W 4 6 4 +2 7
6 FC Levante Badalona 5 6 5 +1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 6 7 -1 6
8 Real Sociedad W 5 6 11 -5 2
9 Granada 5 5 9 -4 6
10 Edf Logrono W 5 4 5 -1 6
11 Sevilla W 4 4 6 -2 6
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 3 3 0 4
13 Eibar W 4 3 4 -1 7
14 Deportivo Alavés 5 3 8 -5 6
15 Valencia W 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Granad. Tenerife W 4 2 9 -7 2
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions