Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Madrid CFF W vs Sevilla W

Madrid CFF W vs Sevilla W Statistics & Analysis

Madrid CFF W Madrid CFF W
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sevilla W Sevilla W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Madrid CFF W Madrid CFF W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7454847

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Madrid CFF W win · Madrid CFF W 1–0 Sevilla W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sevilla W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Madrid CFF W (1X2) 37.6 43.4 -5.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.5 +2.1
Sevilla W (1X2) 32.9 29.1 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.8 -4.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.2 +4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.2%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Madrid CFF W (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
Sevilla W (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.79 1.79 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Madrid CFF W vs Sevilla W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Madrid CFF W 1.35 — Sevilla W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 4 1 0 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Athletic Club W 4 2 1 1 7
5 FC Levante Badalona 5 2 1 2 7
6 Eibar W 4 2 1 1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Edf Logrono W 5 2 0 3 6
9 Sevilla W 4 2 0 2 6
10 Granada 5 2 0 3 6
11 Deportivo Alavés 5 2 0 3 6
12 Espanyol W 4 1 1 2 4
13 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 1 1 2 4
14 Real Sociedad W 5 0 2 3 2
15 Granad. Tenerife W 4 0 2 2 2
16 Valencia W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 21 2 +19 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 13 6 +7 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 9 7 +2 12
4 Espanyol W 4 7 5 +2 4
5 Athletic Club W 4 6 4 +2 7
6 FC Levante Badalona 5 6 5 +1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 6 7 -1 6
8 Real Sociedad W 5 6 11 -5 2
9 Granada 5 5 9 -4 6
10 Edf Logrono W 5 4 5 -1 6
11 Sevilla W 4 4 6 -2 6
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 3 3 0 4
13 Eibar W 4 3 4 -1 7
14 Deportivo Alavés 5 3 8 -5 6
15 Valencia W 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Granad. Tenerife W 4 2 9 -7 2
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions