Athletic Club W vs Espanyol W Statistics & Analysis

Athletic Club W

Sep 12, 2026 - 10:00

2 1.40

2 1.20

xG Accuracy: 68%

Espanyol W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Athletic Club W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7420093

Closing Odds 1.51

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Athletic Club W 2–2 Espanyol W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Espanyol W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Espanyol W (1X2) by about 15.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Athletic Club W (1X2)	40.0	60.7	-20.7
Draw (1X2)	29.5	24.1	+5.4
Espanyol W (1X2)	30.6	15.2	+15.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.2	+4.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.8	-4.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.6% on Espanyol W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.2%. The difference — about 15.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Athletic Club W (1X2)	1.51	1.51
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Espanyol W (1X2)	6.02	6.02
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Athletic Club W vs Espanyol W
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Athletic Club W 1.4 — Espanyol W 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Real Madrid W	5	4	1	0	13
3	Madrid CFF W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Athletic Club W	4	2	1	1	7
5	FC Levante Badalona	5	2	1	2	7
6	Eibar W	4	2	1	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid W	4	2	0	2	6
8	Edf Logrono W	5	2	0	3	6
9	Sevilla W	4	2	0	2	6
10	Granada	5	2	0	3	6
11	Deportivo Alavés	5	2	0	3	6
12	Espanyol W	4	1	1	2	4
13	Deportivo de La Coruña W	4	1	1	2	4
14	Real Sociedad W	5	0	2	3	2
15	Granad. Tenerife W	4	0	2	2	2
16	Valencia W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	5	21	2	+19	15
2	Real Madrid W	5	13	6	+7	13
3	Madrid CFF W	5	9	7	+2	12
4	Espanyol W	4	7	5	+2	4
5	Athletic Club W	4	6	4	+2	7
6	FC Levante Badalona	5	6	5	+1	7
7	Atletico Madrid W	4	6	7	-1	6
8	Real Sociedad W	5	6	11	-5	2
9	Granada	5	5	9	-4	6
10	Edf Logrono W	5	4	5	-1	6
11	Sevilla W	4	4	6	-2	6
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	4	3	3	0	4
13	Eibar W	4	3	4	-1	7
14	Deportivo Alavés	5	3	8	-5	6
15	Valencia W	4	3	10	-7	0
16	Granad. Tenerife W	4	2	9	-7	2