Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia W

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia W Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés
Aug 30, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Valencia W Valencia W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5298181

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Deportivo Alavés win · Deportivo Alavés 2–0 Valencia W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Valencia W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Valencia W (1X2) by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Alavés (1X2) 37.6 46.4 -8.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.2 +1.4
Valencia W (1X2) 32.9 25.4 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.8 +2.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.2 -2.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Valencia W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.4%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Alavés (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Valencia W (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Alavés 1.35 — Valencia W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 4 1 0 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 4 0 1 12
4 Athletic Club W 4 2 1 1 7
5 FC Levante Badalona 5 2 1 2 7
6 Eibar W 4 2 1 1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Edf Logrono W 5 2 0 3 6
9 Sevilla W 4 2 0 2 6
10 Granada 5 2 0 3 6
11 Deportivo Alavés 5 2 0 3 6
12 Espanyol W 4 1 1 2 4
13 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 1 1 2 4
14 Real Sociedad W 5 0 2 3 2
15 Granad. Tenerife W 4 0 2 2 2
16 Valencia W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 5 21 2 +19 15
2 Real Madrid W 5 13 6 +7 13
3 Madrid CFF W 5 9 7 +2 12
4 Espanyol W 4 7 5 +2 4
5 Athletic Club W 4 6 4 +2 7
6 FC Levante Badalona 5 6 5 +1 7
7 Atletico Madrid W 4 6 7 -1 6
8 Real Sociedad W 5 6 11 -5 2
9 Granada 5 5 9 -4 6
10 Edf Logrono W 5 4 5 -1 6
11 Sevilla W 4 4 6 -2 6
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 4 3 3 0 4
13 Eibar W 4 3 4 -1 7
14 Deportivo Alavés 5 3 8 -5 6
15 Valencia W 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Granad. Tenerife W 4 2 9 -7 2
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions