Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Conquense vs Albacete II

Conquense vs Albacete II Statistics & Analysis

Conquense Conquense
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 35%
Albacete II Albacete II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Conquense Conquense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229651

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Conquense win · Conquense 4–0 Albacete II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Conquense vs Albacete II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Conquense 1.38 — Albacete II 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Conquense 6 4 1 1 13
2 A Madrid III 6 4 1 1 13
3 Numancia 6 3 3 0 12
4 Salamanca UDS 6 4 0 2 12
5 CF Talavera 6 3 2 1 11
6 Real Valladolid II 6 3 1 2 10
7 SS Reyes 6 3 1 2 10
8 Guadalajara 6 2 2 2 8
9 Gimnástica Segoviana 6 2 2 2 8
10 Navalcarnero 6 2 2 2 8
11 RSD Alcalá 6 2 1 3 7
12 Real Ávila 6 2 1 3 7
13 Atlético Tordesillas 6 1 2 3 5
14 Atlético Paso 6 1 2 3 5
15 Calvo Sotelo 6 1 2 3 5
16 Albacete II 6 1 2 3 5
17 Real Madrid III 6 0 4 2 4
18 Getafe II 6 0 3 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Conquense 6 14 7 +7 13
2 Real Valladolid II 6 12 5 +7 10
3 Guadalajara 6 12 10 +2 8
4 Gimnástica Segoviana 6 12 11 +1 8
5 Salamanca UDS 6 10 7 +3 12
6 RSD Alcalá 6 10 10 0 7
7 A Madrid III 6 9 6 +3 13
8 CF Talavera 6 9 6 +3 11
9 SS Reyes 6 9 6 +3 10
10 Navalcarnero 6 9 9 0 8
11 Atlético Tordesillas 6 8 10 -2 5
12 Albacete II 6 7 19 -12 5
13 Numancia 6 6 1 +5 12
14 Real Ávila 6 6 9 -3 7
15 Atlético Paso 6 4 7 -3 5
16 Getafe II 6 4 9 -5 3
17 Calvo Sotelo 6 2 8 -6 5
18 Real Madrid III 6 1 4 -3 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions