Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Real Valladolid II vs Calvo Sotelo

Real Valladolid II vs Calvo Sotelo Statistics & Analysis

Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Calvo Sotelo Calvo Sotelo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11660075

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Real Valladolid II win · Real Valladolid II 3–0 Calvo Sotelo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Calvo Sotelo (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Calvo Sotelo (1X2) by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Valladolid II (1X2) 36.1 52.4 -16.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.2 +3.5
Calvo Sotelo (1X2) 34.2 21.4 +12.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.7 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.3 +3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Calvo Sotelo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.4%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Valladolid II (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Calvo Sotelo (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.96 1.96 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Real Valladolid II vs Calvo Sotelo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Real Valladolid II 1.32 — Calvo Sotelo 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 4 3 1 0 10
2 Conquense 4 3 1 0 10
3 Salamanca UDS 4 3 0 1 9
4 A Madrid III 4 3 0 1 9
5 CF Talavera 5 2 2 1 8
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 2 1 2 7
7 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
8 Real Valladolid II 4 2 0 2 6
9 RSD Alcalá 4 2 0 2 6
10 Real Ávila 4 2 0 2 6
11 Atlético Paso 5 1 2 2 5
12 Albacete II 5 1 2 2 5
13 Guadalajara 4 1 1 2 4
14 Navalcarnero 4 1 1 2 4
15 Calvo Sotelo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Getafe II 4 0 2 2 2
17 Real Madrid III 4 0 2 2 2
18 Atlético Tordesillas 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 11 10 +1 7
2 RSD Alcalá 4 9 7 +2 6
3 Conquense 4 8 4 +4 10
4 Real Valladolid II 4 8 4 +4 6
5 Salamanca UDS 4 7 3 +4 9
6 CF Talavera 5 7 5 +2 8
7 Guadalajara 4 7 8 -1 4
8 Albacete II 5 7 15 -8 5
9 Atlético Tordesillas 4 6 10 -4 1
10 Numancia 4 5 0 +5 10
11 A Madrid III 4 5 3 +2 9
12 Real Ávila 4 5 5 0 6
13 Navalcarnero 4 5 7 -2 4
14 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Atlético Paso 5 3 5 -2 5
16 Getafe II 4 3 5 -2 2
17 Calvo Sotelo 4 2 5 -3 4
18 Real Madrid III 4 0 3 -3 2
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions