Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero

RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero Statistics & Analysis

RSD Alcalá RSD Alcalá
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Navalcarnero Navalcarnero
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 RSD Alcalá Navalcarnero ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659982

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Navalcarnero win · RSD Alcalá 1–3 Navalcarnero
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): RSD Alcalá 1.35 — Navalcarnero 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 4 3 1 0 10
2 Conquense 4 3 1 0 10
3 Salamanca UDS 4 3 0 1 9
4 A Madrid III 4 3 0 1 9
5 CF Talavera 5 2 2 1 8
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 2 1 2 7
7 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
8 Real Valladolid II 4 2 0 2 6
9 RSD Alcalá 4 2 0 2 6
10 Real Ávila 4 2 0 2 6
11 Atlético Paso 5 1 2 2 5
12 Albacete II 5 1 2 2 5
13 Guadalajara 4 1 1 2 4
14 Navalcarnero 4 1 1 2 4
15 Calvo Sotelo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Getafe II 4 0 2 2 2
17 Real Madrid III 4 0 2 2 2
18 Atlético Tordesillas 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 11 10 +1 7
2 RSD Alcalá 4 9 7 +2 6
3 Conquense 4 8 4 +4 10
4 Real Valladolid II 4 8 4 +4 6
5 Salamanca UDS 4 7 3 +4 9
6 CF Talavera 5 7 5 +2 8
7 Guadalajara 4 7 8 -1 4
8 Albacete II 5 7 15 -8 5
9 Atlético Tordesillas 4 6 10 -4 1
10 Numancia 4 5 0 +5 10
11 A Madrid III 4 5 3 +2 9
12 Real Ávila 4 5 5 0 6
13 Navalcarnero 4 5 7 -2 4
14 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Atlético Paso 5 3 5 -2 5
16 Getafe II 4 3 5 -2 2
17 Calvo Sotelo 4 2 5 -3 4
18 Real Madrid III 4 0 3 -3 2
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions