Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Albacete II vs CF Talavera

Albacete II vs CF Talavera Statistics & Analysis

Albacete II Albacete II
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.21
4 1.39
xG Accuracy: 35%
CF Talavera CF Talavera
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CF Talavera CF Talavera ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659534

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CF Talavera win · Albacete II 0–4 CF Talavera
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Albacete II vs CF Talavera
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Albacete II 1.21 — CF Talavera 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.2% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Conquense 6 4 1 1 13
2 A Madrid III 6 4 1 1 13
3 Numancia 6 3 3 0 12
4 Salamanca UDS 6 4 0 2 12
5 CF Talavera 6 3 2 1 11
6 Real Valladolid II 6 3 1 2 10
7 SS Reyes 6 3 1 2 10
8 Guadalajara 6 2 2 2 8
9 Gimnástica Segoviana 6 2 2 2 8
10 Navalcarnero 6 2 2 2 8
11 RSD Alcalá 6 2 1 3 7
12 Real Ávila 6 2 1 3 7
13 Atlético Tordesillas 6 1 2 3 5
14 Atlético Paso 6 1 2 3 5
15 Calvo Sotelo 6 1 2 3 5
16 Albacete II 6 1 2 3 5
17 Real Madrid III 6 0 4 2 4
18 Getafe II 6 0 3 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Conquense 6 14 7 +7 13
2 Real Valladolid II 6 12 5 +7 10
3 Guadalajara 6 12 10 +2 8
4 Gimnástica Segoviana 6 12 11 +1 8
5 Salamanca UDS 6 10 7 +3 12
6 RSD Alcalá 6 10 10 0 7
7 A Madrid III 6 9 6 +3 13
8 CF Talavera 6 9 6 +3 11
9 SS Reyes 6 9 6 +3 10
10 Navalcarnero 6 9 9 0 8
11 Atlético Tordesillas 6 8 10 -2 5
12 Albacete II 6 7 19 -12 5
13 Numancia 6 6 1 +5 12
14 Real Ávila 6 6 9 -3 7
15 Atlético Paso 6 4 7 -3 5
16 Getafe II 6 4 9 -5 3
17 Calvo Sotelo 6 2 8 -6 5
18 Real Madrid III 6 1 4 -3 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions