Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Tordesillas Statistics & Analysis

Calvo Sotelo

Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Atlético Tordesillas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Calvo Sotelo Calvo Sotelo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10104976

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Calvo Sotelo win · Calvo Sotelo 1–0 Atlético Tordesillas

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Fixture: Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Tordesillas
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Calvo Sotelo 1.32 — Atlético Tordesillas 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Numancia	3	2	1	0	7
2	Conquense	3	2	1	0	7
3	SS Reyes	4	2	1	1	7
4	RSD Alcalá	3	2	0	1	6
5	Real Valladolid II	3	2	0	1	6
6	Gimnástica Segoviana	4	2	0	2	6
7	Salamanca UDS	3	2	0	1	6
8	A Madrid III	3	2	0	1	6
9	Navalcarnero	3	1	1	1	4
10	Albacete II	3	1	1	1	4
11	Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	3
12	Real Ávila	3	1	0	2	3
13	Real Madrid III	2	0	2	0	2
14	Getafe II	3	0	2	1	2
15	CF Talavera	3	0	2	1	2
16	Atlético Tordesillas	3	0	1	2	1
17	Atlético Paso	3	0	1	2	1
18	Calvo Sotelo	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	RSD Alcalá	3	9	4	+5	6
2	Gimnástica Segoviana	4	8	7	+1	6
3	Real Valladolid II	3	7	2	+5	6
4	Atlético Tordesillas	3	6	9	-3	1
5	Conquense	3	5	3	+2	7
6	Albacete II	3	5	9	-4	4
7	Numancia	3	4	0	+4	7
8	SS Reyes	4	4	3	+1	7
9	Salamanca UDS	3	4	3	+1	6
10	Navalcarnero	3	4	4	0	4
11	Guadalajara	2	4	4	0	3
12	Real Ávila	3	4	5	-1	3
13	A Madrid III	3	3	3	0	6
14	Getafe II	3	3	4	-1	2
15	CF Talavera	3	1	4	-3	2
16	Calvo Sotelo	3	1	5	-4	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	0	0	2
18	Atlético Paso	3	0	3	-3	1