Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / RSD Alcalá vs Gimnástica Segoviana

RSD Alcalá vs Gimnástica Segoviana Statistics & Analysis

RSD Alcalá RSD Alcalá
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 30%
Gimnástica Segoviana Gimnástica Segoviana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 RSD Alcalá RSD Alcalá ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8660608

Closing Odds 3.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result RSD Alcalá win · RSD Alcalá 5–2 Gimnástica Segoviana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gimnástica Segoviana (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
RSD Alcalá (1X2) 38.5 44.9 -6.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.0 -1.4
Gimnástica Segoviana (1X2) 31.9 24.1 +7.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 37.8 +10.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 62.2 -10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.8%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
RSD Alcalá (1X2) 2.04 2.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.96 2.96 0.0
Gimnástica Segoviana (1X2) 3.8 3.8 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.47 2.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: RSD Alcalá vs Gimnástica Segoviana
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): RSD Alcalá 1.37 — Gimnástica Segoviana 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 7
2 Conquense 3 2 1 0 7
3 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
4 RSD Alcalá 3 2 0 1 6
5 Real Valladolid II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 2 0 2 6
7 Salamanca UDS 3 2 0 1 6
8 A Madrid III 3 2 0 1 6
9 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4
10 Albacete II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 3
12 Real Ávila 3 1 0 2 3
13 Real Madrid III 2 0 2 0 2
14 Getafe II 3 0 2 1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 2
16 Atlético Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Atlético Paso 3 0 1 2 1
18 Calvo Sotelo 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 RSD Alcalá 3 9 4 +5 6
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 8 7 +1 6
3 Real Valladolid II 3 7 2 +5 6
4 Atlético Tordesillas 3 6 9 -3 1
5 Conquense 3 5 3 +2 7
6 Albacete II 3 5 9 -4 4
7 Numancia 3 4 0 +4 7
8 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
9 Salamanca UDS 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Navalcarnero 3 4 4 0 4
11 Guadalajara 2 4 4 0 3
12 Real Ávila 3 4 5 -1 3
13 A Madrid III 3 3 3 0 6
14 Getafe II 3 3 4 -1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 1 4 -3 2
16 Calvo Sotelo 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Real Madrid III 2 0 0 0 2
18 Atlético Paso 3 0 3 -3 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions