Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Navalcarnero vs Real Ávila

Navalcarnero vs Real Ávila Statistics & Analysis

Navalcarnero Navalcarnero
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 78%
Real Ávila Real Ávila
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 07:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7489345

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Navalcarnero win · Navalcarnero 2–1 Real Ávila
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Ávila (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Ávila (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Navalcarnero (1X2) 37.0 43.0 -6.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.1 +0.5
Real Ávila (1X2) 33.4 27.9 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.1 +4.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.9 -4.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Real Ávila (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.9%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Navalcarnero (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Real Ávila (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Navalcarnero vs Real Ávila
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Navalcarnero 1.34 — Real Ávila 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +2.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Navalcarnero & Real Ávila!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 7
2 Conquense 3 2 1 0 7
3 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
4 RSD Alcalá 3 2 0 1 6
5 Real Valladolid II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 2 0 2 6
7 Salamanca UDS 3 2 0 1 6
8 A Madrid III 3 2 0 1 6
9 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4
10 Albacete II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 3
12 Real Ávila 3 1 0 2 3
13 Real Madrid III 2 0 2 0 2
14 Getafe II 3 0 2 1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 2
16 Atlético Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Atlético Paso 3 0 1 2 1
18 Calvo Sotelo 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 RSD Alcalá 3 9 4 +5 6
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 8 7 +1 6
3 Real Valladolid II 3 7 2 +5 6
4 Atlético Tordesillas 3 6 9 -3 1
5 Conquense 3 5 3 +2 7
6 Albacete II 3 5 9 -4 4
7 Numancia 3 4 0 +4 7
8 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
9 Salamanca UDS 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Navalcarnero 3 4 4 0 4
11 Guadalajara 2 4 4 0 3
12 Real Ávila 3 4 5 -1 3
13 A Madrid III 3 3 3 0 6
14 Getafe II 3 3 4 -1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 1 4 -3 2
16 Calvo Sotelo 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Real Madrid III 2 0 0 0 2
18 Atlético Paso 3 0 3 -3 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions