Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Badajoz vs Marbella

Badajoz vs Marbella Statistics & Analysis

Badajoz Badajoz
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Marbella Marbella
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Badajoz Badajoz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13224597

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Badajoz win · Badajoz 1–0 Marbella
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Badajoz vs Marbella
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Badajoz 1.32 — Marbella 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 6 4 2 0 14
2 Recreativo Huelva 5 4 0 1 12
3 Don Benito 5 3 1 1 10
4 Tenerife II 5 3 0 2 9
5 Ciudad de Lucena 5 2 2 1 8
6 Sevilla Atletico 5 2 2 1 8
7 Badajoz 5 2 2 1 8
8 Estepona 5 2 1 2 7
9 Linares Deportivo 5 2 1 2 7
10 Mijas Las Lagunas 5 1 3 1 6
11 Sanluqueño 5 1 3 1 6
12 Xerez 6 1 3 2 6
13 Atlético Central 5 2 0 3 6
14 Marbella 5 1 2 2 5
15 Puente Genil 5 1 1 3 4
16 Las Palmas II 5 1 1 3 4
17 Tamaraceite 5 1 0 4 3
18 Antoniano 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Recreativo Huelva 5 10 4 +6 12
2 Mijas Las Lagunas 5 10 10 0 6
3 Real Betis II 6 9 1 +8 14
4 Tenerife II 5 9 7 +2 9
5 Sevilla Atletico 5 8 6 +2 8
6 Don Benito 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Ciudad de Lucena 5 7 4 +3 8
8 Estepona 5 7 7 0 7
9 Sanluqueño 5 7 7 0 6
10 Badajoz 5 6 5 +1 8
11 Linares Deportivo 5 6 7 -1 7
12 Atlético Central 5 6 8 -2 6
13 Marbella 5 6 8 -2 5
14 Puente Genil 5 5 5 0 4
15 Xerez 6 4 5 -1 6
16 Tamaraceite 5 4 11 -7 3
17 Antoniano 5 2 7 -5 2
18 Las Palmas II 5 1 8 -7 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions