Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Marbella vs Real Betis II

Marbella vs Real Betis II Statistics & Analysis

Marbella Marbella
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Real Betis II Real Betis II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Marbella Real Betis II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11678915

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Betis II win · Marbella 0–2 Real Betis II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Marbella vs Real Betis II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Marbella 1.32 — Real Betis II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 5 3 1 1 10
3 Tenerife II 4 3 0 1 9
4 Recreativo Huelva 4 3 0 1 9
5 Sevilla Atletico 4 2 1 1 7
6 Badajoz 4 2 1 1 7
7 Estepona 5 2 1 2 7
8 Atlético Central 4 2 0 2 6
9 Ciudad de Lucena 4 1 2 1 5
10 Mijas Las Lagunas 4 1 2 1 5
11 Marbella 4 1 2 1 5
12 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
13 Puente Genil 4 1 1 2 4
14 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
15 Las Palmas II 4 1 1 2 4
16 Xerez 4 0 2 2 2
17 Antoniano 4 0 2 2 2
18 Tamaraceite 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tenerife II 4 8 5 +3 9
2 Mijas Las Lagunas 4 8 8 0 5
3 Don Benito 5 7 4 +3 10
4 Estepona 5 7 7 0 7
5 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
6 Recreativo Huelva 4 6 4 +2 9
7 Sevilla Atletico 4 6 4 +2 7
8 Ciudad de Lucena 4 6 4 +2 5
9 Marbella 4 6 6 0 5
10 Atlético Central 4 6 7 -1 6
11 Puente Genil 4 5 4 +1 4
12 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
13 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
14 Badajoz 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Tamaraceite 4 3 11 -8 0
16 Antoniano 4 2 6 -4 2
17 Xerez 4 1 3 -2 2
18 Las Palmas II 4 1 4 -3 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions