Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Castellón II vs Lorca Deportiva

Castellón II vs Lorca Deportiva Statistics & Analysis

Castellón II Castellón II
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Lorca Deportiva Lorca Deportiva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Castellón II Castellón II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242038

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Castellón II win · Castellón II 2–1 Lorca Deportiva
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Castellón II vs Lorca Deportiva
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Castellón II 1.33 — Lorca Deportiva 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón II 5 4 0 1 12
2 La Nucía 5 4 0 1 12
3 Castellonense 5 4 0 1 12
4 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 10
5 Ucam Murcia 5 3 0 2 9
6 Intercity 5 2 3 0 9
7 Cieza 5 2 2 1 8
8 Deportiva Minera 5 2 2 1 8
9 Yeclano 5 2 2 1 8
10 Elche II 6 2 1 3 7
11 Orihuela 5 2 1 2 7
12 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 5
13 Mallorca II 5 1 2 2 5
14 Atlético Baleares 5 1 2 2 5
15 Valencia II 6 1 1 4 4
16 Poblense 5 1 0 4 3
17 Real Murcia II 5 1 0 4 3
18 Peña Deportiva 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 5 12 5 +7 12
2 Ucam Murcia 5 12 6 +6 9
3 La Nucía 5 9 3 +6 12
4 Castellonense 5 8 3 +5 12
5 Cieza 5 7 3 +4 8
6 Intercity 5 7 5 +2 9
7 Elche II 6 7 9 -2 7
8 Alcoyano 5 6 4 +2 10
9 Atlético Baleares 5 6 9 -3 5
10 Orihuela 5 6 11 -5 7
11 Valencia II 6 6 11 -5 4
12 Deportiva Minera 5 5 4 +1 8
13 Yeclano 5 4 3 +1 8
14 Real Murcia II 5 4 11 -7 3
15 Lorca Deportiva 5 3 4 -1 5
16 Poblense 5 3 7 -4 3
17 Peña Deportiva 5 3 8 -5 1
18 Mallorca II 5 2 4 -2 5
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions