Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Elche II vs Ucam Murcia

Elche II vs Ucam Murcia Statistics & Analysis

Elche II Elche II
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:15
1 1.33
5 1.27
xG Accuracy: 33%
Ucam Murcia Ucam Murcia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Elche II Ucam Murcia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247561

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ucam Murcia win · Elche II 1–5 Ucam Murcia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Elche II (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Elche II (1X2) by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Elche II (1X2) 36.6 23.1 +13.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.2 +1.4
Ucam Murcia (1X2) 33.8 48.7 -14.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.0 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.0 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Elche II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.1%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE5) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Elche II (1X2) 3.96 3.96 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.24 3.24 0.0
Ucam Murcia (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.97 1.97 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Elche II vs Ucam Murcia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Elche II 1.33 — Ucam Murcia 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Nucía 4 4 0 0 12
2 Castellón II 5 4 0 1 12
3 Ucam Murcia 5 3 0 2 9
4 Castellonense 4 3 0 1 9
5 Intercity 4 2 2 0 8
6 Alcoyano 4 2 1 1 7
7 Yeclano 4 2 1 1 7
8 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 7
9 Cieza 4 1 2 1 5
10 Deportiva Minera 4 1 2 1 5
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 5
12 Mallorca II 4 1 2 1 5
13 Elche II 5 1 1 3 4
14 Poblense 4 1 0 3 3
15 Real Murcia II 4 1 0 3 3
16 Atlético Baleares 4 0 2 2 2
17 Valencia II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 5 12 5 +7 12
2 Ucam Murcia 5 12 6 +6 9
3 La Nucía 4 9 1 +8 12
4 Intercity 4 6 4 +2 8
5 Orihuela 4 6 7 -1 7
6 Castellonense 4 5 3 +2 9
7 Alcoyano 4 5 4 +1 7
8 Real Murcia II 4 4 8 -4 3
9 Atlético Baleares 4 4 8 -4 2
10 Yeclano 4 3 2 +1 7
11 Cieza 4 3 3 0 5
12 Deportiva Minera 4 3 4 -1 5
13 Lorca Deportiva 5 3 4 -1 5
14 Elche II 5 3 8 -5 4
15 Mallorca II 4 2 3 -1 5
16 Poblense 4 2 5 -3 3
17 Valencia II 4 2 5 -3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 1 5 -4 1