Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Castellonense vs Real Murcia II

Castellonense vs Real Murcia II Statistics & Analysis

Castellonense Castellonense
Oct 04, 2026 - 09:45
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Real Murcia II Real Murcia II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Castellonense Castellonense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659338

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Castellonense win · Castellonense 3–0 Real Murcia II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Castellonense vs Real Murcia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 09:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Castellonense 1.32 — Real Murcia II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Nucía 4 4 0 0 12
2 Castellón II 5 4 0 1 12
3 Ucam Murcia 5 3 0 2 9
4 Castellonense 4 3 0 1 9
5 Intercity 4 2 2 0 8
6 Alcoyano 4 2 1 1 7
7 Yeclano 4 2 1 1 7
8 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 7
9 Cieza 4 1 2 1 5
10 Deportiva Minera 4 1 2 1 5
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 5
12 Mallorca II 4 1 2 1 5
13 Elche II 5 1 1 3 4
14 Poblense 4 1 0 3 3
15 Real Murcia II 4 1 0 3 3
16 Atlético Baleares 4 0 2 2 2
17 Valencia II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 5 12 5 +7 12
2 Ucam Murcia 5 12 6 +6 9
3 La Nucía 4 9 1 +8 12
4 Intercity 4 6 4 +2 8
5 Orihuela 4 6 7 -1 7
6 Castellonense 4 5 3 +2 9
7 Alcoyano 4 5 4 +1 7
8 Real Murcia II 4 4 8 -4 3
9 Atlético Baleares 4 4 8 -4 2
10 Yeclano 4 3 2 +1 7
11 Cieza 4 3 3 0 5
12 Deportiva Minera 4 3 4 -1 5
13 Lorca Deportiva 5 3 4 -1 5
14 Elche II 5 3 8 -5 4
15 Mallorca II 4 2 3 -1 5
16 Poblense 4 2 5 -3 3
17 Valencia II 4 2 5 -3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 1 5 -4 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions