Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Atlético Baleares vs Poblense

Atlético Baleares vs Poblense Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Baleares Atlético Baleares
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 81%
Poblense Poblense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Baleares Atlético Baleares ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659673

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Baleares win · Atlético Baleares 2–1 Poblense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Atlético Baleares vs Poblense
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Baleares 1.41 — Poblense 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.2% · Implied: 43.4% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +16.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Nucía 4 4 0 0 12
2 Castellón II 5 4 0 1 12
3 Ucam Murcia 5 3 0 2 9
4 Castellonense 4 3 0 1 9
5 Intercity 4 2 2 0 8
6 Alcoyano 4 2 1 1 7
7 Yeclano 4 2 1 1 7
8 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 7
9 Cieza 4 1 2 1 5
10 Deportiva Minera 4 1 2 1 5
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 5
12 Mallorca II 4 1 2 1 5
13 Elche II 5 1 1 3 4
14 Poblense 4 1 0 3 3
15 Real Murcia II 4 1 0 3 3
16 Atlético Baleares 4 0 2 2 2
17 Valencia II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 5 12 5 +7 12
2 Ucam Murcia 5 12 6 +6 9
3 La Nucía 4 9 1 +8 12
4 Intercity 4 6 4 +2 8
5 Orihuela 4 6 7 -1 7
6 Castellonense 4 5 3 +2 9
7 Alcoyano 4 5 4 +1 7
8 Real Murcia II 4 4 8 -4 3
9 Atlético Baleares 4 4 8 -4 2
10 Yeclano 4 3 2 +1 7
11 Cieza 4 3 3 0 5
12 Deportiva Minera 4 3 4 -1 5
13 Lorca Deportiva 5 3 4 -1 5
14 Elche II 5 3 8 -5 4
15 Mallorca II 4 2 3 -1 5
16 Poblense 4 2 5 -3 3
17 Valencia II 4 2 5 -3 1
18 Peña Deportiva 4 1 5 -4 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions