Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Elche II vs Peña Deportiva

Elche II vs Peña Deportiva Statistics & Analysis

Elche II Elche II
Sep 20, 2026 - 09:30
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Peña Deportiva Peña Deportiva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Elche II Elche II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8659597

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Elche II win · Elche II 1–0 Peña Deportiva
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Peña Deportiva (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Peña Deportiva (1X2) by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Elche II (1X2) 38.5 41.6 -3.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.0 +1.6
Peña Deportiva (1X2) 31.9 30.3 +1.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.3 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.7 +0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Peña Deportiva (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.3%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Elche II (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.27 0.0
Peña Deportiva (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.96 1.96 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Elche II vs Peña Deportiva
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Elche II 1.37 — Peña Deportiva 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón II 4 3 0 1 9
2 La Nucía 3 3 0 0 9
3 Castellonense 3 3 0 0 9
4 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 7
5 Ucam Murcia 3 2 0 1 6
6 Intercity 3 1 2 0 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 1 2 0 5
8 Mallorca II 3 1 2 0 5
9 Cieza 3 1 1 1 4
10 Elche II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Yeclano 3 1 1 1 4
12 Alcoyano 3 1 1 1 4
13 Lorca Deportiva 3 0 2 1 2
14 Valencia II 3 0 1 2 1
15 Peña Deportiva 3 0 1 2 1
16 Atlético Baleares 3 0 1 2 1
17 Poblense 3 0 0 3 0
18 Real Murcia II 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 4 10 4 +6 9
2 La Nucía 3 7 1 +6 9
3 Ucam Murcia 3 6 3 +3 6
4 Orihuela 4 6 7 -1 7
5 Castellonense 3 5 2 +3 9
6 Intercity 3 4 3 +1 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 3 2 +1 5
8 Alcoyano 3 3 4 -1 4
9 Atlético Baleares 3 3 7 -4 1
10 Mallorca II 3 2 1 +1 5
11 Cieza 3 2 2 0 4
12 Elche II 3 2 2 0 4
13 Yeclano 3 2 2 0 4
14 Valencia II 3 2 4 -2 1
15 Real Murcia II 3 2 8 -6 0
16 Lorca Deportiva 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Peña Deportiva 3 1 3 -2 1
18 Poblense 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions