Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 / SD Logroñés vs Girona II

SD Logroñés vs Girona II Statistics & Analysis

SD Logroñés SD Logroñés
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.22
2 1.38
xG Accuracy: 68%
Girona II Girona II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Girona II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8684624

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · SD Logroñés 2–2 Girona II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Girona II (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Girona II (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SD Logroñés (1X2) 31.5 38.4 -6.9
Draw (1X2) 29.5 32.3 -2.7
Girona II (1X2) 39.0 29.4 +9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 38.8 +9.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.2 -9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Girona II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.4%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
SD Logroñés (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Girona II (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.4 2.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.52 1.52 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: SD Logroñés vs Girona II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): SD Logroñés 1.22 — Girona II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.7% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +15.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona B 4 3 1 0 10
2 Osasuna II 3 3 0 0 9
3 Ebro 4 2 1 1 7
4 Terrassa 4 2 1 1 7
5 Espanyol II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Manresa 4 2 0 2 6
7 Utebo 3 1 2 0 5
8 UD Logroñés II 4 1 2 1 5
9 Girona II 3 1 1 1 4
10 Olot 3 1 1 1 4
11 Barbastro 3 1 1 1 4
12 Tudelano 3 1 1 1 4
13 Peña Sport 4 1 1 2 4
14 Reddis 3 1 0 2 3
15 Calamocha 3 1 0 2 3
16 SD Logroñés 3 0 2 1 2
17 Arnedo 3 0 0 3 0
18 Náxara 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona B 4 10 0 +10 10
2 Espanyol II 3 8 3 +5 6
3 Girona II 3 8 7 +1 4
4 Manresa 4 7 4 +3 6
5 Osasuna II 3 6 1 +5 9
6 Ebro 4 5 3 +2 7
7 Olot 3 5 5 0 4
8 Utebo 3 4 3 +1 5
9 Barbastro 3 4 4 0 4
10 SD Logroñés 3 4 5 -1 2
11 UD Logroñés II 4 3 3 0 5
12 Tudelano 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Peña Sport 4 3 8 -5 4
14 Calamocha 3 3 8 -5 3
15 Terrassa 4 2 1 +1 7
16 Arnedo 3 2 9 -7 0
17 Reddis 3 1 3 -2 3
18 Náxara 3 1 8 -7 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions