Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Amorebieta vs Portugalete

Amorebieta vs Portugalete Statistics & Analysis

Amorebieta Amorebieta
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Portugalete Portugalete
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Amorebieta Portugalete ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13243882

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portugalete win · Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Amorebieta vs Portugalete
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Amorebieta 1.32 — Portugalete 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bergantiños 5 4 1 0 13
2 Eibar II 6 4 1 1 13
3 Sestao River 6 4 1 1 13
4 Deportivo Alavés II 5 4 0 1 12
5 Portugalete 6 3 1 2 10
6 Ourense CF 6 3 1 2 10
7 Basconia 6 2 3 1 9
8 Gernika 5 2 2 1 8
9 Amorebieta 6 2 1 3 7
10 Real Oviedo II 5 2 1 2 7
11 Llanera 6 2 1 3 7
12 Atlético Astorga 6 2 0 4 6
13 Marino de Luanco 6 2 0 4 6
14 Coruxo 5 1 2 2 5
15 Gimnástica Torrelavega 6 1 2 3 5
16 Compostela 5 1 1 3 4
17 Arosa 5 0 3 2 3
18 Racing Santander II 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bergantiños 5 12 5 +7 13
2 Gernika 5 12 5 +7 8
3 Deportivo Alavés II 5 12 6 +6 12
4 Eibar II 6 11 4 +7 13
5 Basconia 6 10 9 +1 9
6 Atlético Astorga 6 9 7 +2 6
7 Llanera 6 9 12 -3 7
8 Real Oviedo II 5 8 10 -2 7
9 Marino de Luanco 6 8 12 -4 6
10 Sestao River 6 7 3 +4 13
11 Portugalete 6 7 7 0 10
12 Amorebieta 6 6 6 0 7
13 Coruxo 5 6 7 -1 5
14 Gimnástica Torrelavega 6 6 10 -4 5
15 Arosa 5 6 13 -7 3
16 Ourense CF 6 5 7 -2 10
17 Compostela 5 3 6 -3 4
18 Racing Santander II 5 3 11 -8 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions