Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Portugalete vs Deportivo Alavés II

Portugalete vs Deportivo Alavés II Statistics & Analysis

Portugalete Portugalete
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Deportivo Alavés II Deportivo Alavés II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Portugalete Deportivo Alavés II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11253498

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportivo Alavés II win · Portugalete 0–2 Deportivo Alavés II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Portugalete vs Deportivo Alavés II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Portugalete 1.32 — Deportivo Alavés II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar II 5 4 0 1 12
2 Deportivo Alavés II 5 4 0 1 12
3 Bergantiños 4 3 1 0 10
4 Sestao River 4 3 0 1 9
5 Ourense CF 4 3 0 1 9
6 Gernika 4 2 2 0 8
7 Basconia 5 2 2 1 8
8 Amorebieta 5 2 1 2 7
9 Portugalete 5 2 1 2 7
10 Marino de Luanco 5 2 0 3 6
11 Coruxo 4 1 2 1 5
12 Compostela 4 1 1 2 4
13 Real Oviedo II 4 1 1 2 4
14 Gimnástica Torrelavega 5 1 1 3 4
15 Llanera 5 1 1 3 4
16 Atlético Astorga 5 1 0 4 3
17 Arosa 4 0 2 2 2
18 Racing Santander II 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Alavés II 5 12 6 +6 12
2 Gernika 4 11 3 +8 8
3 Eibar II 5 10 3 +7 12
4 Bergantiños 4 9 4 +5 10
5 Basconia 5 9 8 +1 8
6 Marino de Luanco 5 6 8 -2 6
7 Real Oviedo II 4 6 9 -3 4
8 Gimnástica Torrelavega 5 6 10 -4 4
9 Arosa 4 6 13 -7 2
10 Sestao River 4 5 2 +3 9
11 Ourense CF 4 5 3 +2 9
12 Amorebieta 5 5 4 +1 7
13 Coruxo 4 5 4 +1 5
14 Portugalete 5 5 6 -1 7
15 Atlético Astorga 5 5 7 -2 3
16 Llanera 5 5 10 -5 4
17 Racing Santander II 5 3 11 -8 1
18 Compostela 4 2 4 -2 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions