Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Bergantiños vs Coruxo

Bergantiños vs Coruxo Statistics & Analysis

Bergantiños Bergantiños
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
Coruxo Coruxo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bergantiños Bergantiños ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11678552

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bergantiños win · Bergantiños 3–1 Coruxo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Bergantiños vs Coruxo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Bergantiños 1.33 — Coruxo 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar II 5 4 0 1 12
2 Deportivo Alavés II 5 4 0 1 12
3 Bergantiños 4 3 1 0 10
4 Sestao River 4 3 0 1 9
5 Ourense CF 4 3 0 1 9
6 Gernika 4 2 2 0 8
7 Basconia 5 2 2 1 8
8 Amorebieta 5 2 1 2 7
9 Portugalete 5 2 1 2 7
10 Marino de Luanco 5 2 0 3 6
11 Coruxo 4 1 2 1 5
12 Compostela 4 1 1 2 4
13 Real Oviedo II 4 1 1 2 4
14 Gimnástica Torrelavega 5 1 1 3 4
15 Llanera 5 1 1 3 4
16 Atlético Astorga 5 1 0 4 3
17 Arosa 4 0 2 2 2
18 Racing Santander II 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Alavés II 5 12 6 +6 12
2 Gernika 4 11 3 +8 8
3 Eibar II 5 10 3 +7 12
4 Bergantiños 4 9 4 +5 10
5 Basconia 5 9 8 +1 8
6 Marino de Luanco 5 6 8 -2 6
7 Real Oviedo II 4 6 9 -3 4
8 Gimnástica Torrelavega 5 6 10 -4 4
9 Arosa 4 6 13 -7 2
10 Sestao River 4 5 2 +3 9
11 Ourense CF 4 5 3 +2 9
12 Amorebieta 5 5 4 +1 7
13 Coruxo 4 5 4 +1 5
14 Portugalete 5 5 6 -1 7
15 Atlético Astorga 5 5 7 -2 3
16 Llanera 5 5 10 -5 4
17 Racing Santander II 5 3 11 -8 1
18 Compostela 4 2 4 -2 4
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions