Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB II / Fehérvár FC vs Mezokovesd-zsory

Fehérvár FC vs Mezokovesd-zsory Statistics & Analysis

Fehérvár FC Fehérvár FC
Aug 22, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Mezokovesd-zsory Mezokovesd-zsory
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fehérvár FC Mezokovesd-zsory ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236123

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Mezokovesd-zsory win · Fehérvár FC 1–2 Mezokovesd-zsory
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mezokovesd-zsory (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mezokovesd-zsory (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fehérvár FC (1X2) 37.6 46.7 -9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.4 +0.2
Mezokovesd-zsory (1X2) 32.9 23.9 +9.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.8 +5.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.2 -5.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Mezokovesd-zsory (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.9%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fehérvár FC (1X2) 1.94 1.96 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.08 3.12 0.0
Mezokovesd-zsory (1X2) 3.76 3.83 -0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.17 2.19 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.63 1.64 +0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Fehérvár FC vs Mezokovesd-zsory
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Fehérvár FC 1.35 — Mezokovesd-zsory 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.0% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kecskeméti TE 8 5 2 1 17
3 Tiszakecske FC 8 4 4 0 16
4 Ajka 7 4 2 1 14
5 Kazincbarcikai 8 3 4 1 13
6 Gyirmot SE 8 4 1 3 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 4 0 3 12
8 Karcag SE 8 2 5 1 11
9 Szentlőrinc SE 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fehérvár FC 8 3 0 5 9
11 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 3 0 5 9
12 Diosgyori VTK 7 2 1 4 7
13 Szeged 2011 7 1 3 3 6
14 BVSC 7 1 1 5 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 1 1 6 4
16 Csakvar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 8 23 7 +16 20
2 Tiszakecske FC 8 17 10 +7 16
3 Kecskeméti TE 8 15 8 +7 17
4 Kazincbarcikai 8 13 11 +2 13
5 Karcag SE 8 13 11 +2 11
6 Gyirmot SE 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 11 8 +3 12
8 Fehérvár FC 8 11 11 0 9
9 Ajka 7 9 6 +3 14
10 Szentlőrinc SE 7 8 9 -1 10
11 Diosgyori VTK 7 8 15 -7 7
12 Csakvar 8 8 19 -11 4
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 7 10 -3 9
14 Szeged 2011 7 6 8 -2 6
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 6 16 -10 4
16 BVSC 7 4 9 -5 4