Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB II / Nagykanizsai ULE vs Diosgyori VTK

Nagykanizsai ULE vs Diosgyori VTK Statistics & Analysis

Nagykanizsai ULE Nagykanizsai ULE
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Diosgyori VTK Diosgyori VTK
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nagykanizsai ULE Diosgyori VTK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456382

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Diosgyori VTK win · Nagykanizsai ULE 2–3 Diosgyori VTK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nagykanizsai ULE (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Nagykanizsai ULE (1X2) by about 18.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nagykanizsai ULE (1X2) 36.1 17.7 +18.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 21.9 +7.8
Diosgyori VTK (1X2) 34.2 60.4 -26.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.8 -6.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.2 +6.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Nagykanizsai ULE (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.7%. The difference — about 18.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nagykanizsai ULE (1X2) 5.11 5.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.14 4.14 0.0
Diosgyori VTK (1X2) 1.5 1.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Nemzeti Bajnokság II (NB II)
  • Fixture: Nagykanizsai ULE vs Diósgyőri VTK
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Nagykanizsai ULE 1.32 — Diósgyőri VTK 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.0% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kecskeméti TE 8 5 2 1 17
3 Tiszakecske FC 8 4 4 0 16
4 Ajka 7 4 2 1 14
5 Kazincbarcikai 8 3 4 1 13
6 Gyirmot SE 8 4 1 3 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 4 0 3 12
8 Karcag SE 8 2 5 1 11
9 Szentlőrinc SE 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fehérvár FC 8 3 0 5 9
11 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 3 0 5 9
12 Diosgyori VTK 7 2 1 4 7
13 Szeged 2011 7 1 3 3 6
14 BVSC 7 1 1 5 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 1 1 6 4
16 Csakvar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 8 23 7 +16 20
2 Tiszakecske FC 8 17 10 +7 16
3 Kecskeméti TE 8 15 8 +7 17
4 Kazincbarcikai 8 13 11 +2 13
5 Karcag SE 8 13 11 +2 11
6 Gyirmot SE 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 11 8 +3 12
8 Fehérvár FC 8 11 11 0 9
9 Ajka 7 9 6 +3 14
10 Szentlőrinc SE 7 8 9 -1 10
11 Diosgyori VTK 7 8 15 -7 7
12 Csakvar 8 8 19 -11 4
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 7 10 -3 9
14 Szeged 2011 7 6 8 -2 6
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 6 16 -10 4
16 BVSC 7 4 9 -5 4