Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Nesebar vs Beroe

Nesebar vs Beroe Statistics & Analysis

Nesebar Nesebar
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.21
3 1.39
xG Accuracy: 30%
Beroe Beroe
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Beroe Nesebar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679149

Closing Odds 2.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nesebar win · Nesebar 4–3 Beroe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Beroe (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nesebar (1X2) 31.0 32.0 -1.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 31.2 -1.8
Beroe (1X2) 39.5 36.8 +2.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.4 +6.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.6 -6.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.4%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nesebar (1X2) 2.78 2.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Beroe (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Nesebar vs Beroe
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Nesebar 1.21 — Beroe 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 10 6 3 1 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 10 6 2 2 20
3 Fratria 10 5 4 1 19
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 10 5 3 2 18
5 Nesebar 10 5 2 3 17
6 Yantra 2019 10 5 1 4 16
7 Beroe 10 4 3 3 15
8 Rilski Sportist 10 4 3 3 15
9 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 10 4 3 3 15
10 Hebar 1918 10 4 2 4 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Spartak Pleven 10 4 1 5 13
13 Marek 10 4 1 5 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 10 3 2 5 11
16 Sportist Svoge 10 2 4 4 10
17 Dobrudzha 10 1 3 6 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 10 0 0 10 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 10 23 11 +12 21
2 Hebar 1918 10 23 17 +6 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 10 22 9 +13 20
4 Nesebar 10 20 15 +5 17
5 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
6 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 10 16 8 +8 18
7 Beroe 10 15 12 +3 15
8 Fratria 10 14 8 +6 19
9 Rilski Sportist 10 13 10 +3 15
10 Montana 10 13 21 -8 11
11 Yantra 2019 10 12 10 +2 16
12 Marek 10 11 12 -1 13
13 Spartak Pleven 10 11 19 -8 13
14 Dobrudzha 10 10 17 -7 6
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 10 9 10 -1 15
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 10 7 9 -2 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 10 4 32 -28 0
Second League Bulgaria. Second League Predictions