Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Yantra 2019 vs Spartak Pleven

Yantra 2019 vs Spartak Pleven Statistics & Analysis

Yantra 2019 Yantra 2019
Jul 25, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 54%
Spartak Pleven Spartak Pleven
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yantra 2019 Spartak Pleven ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456638

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Spartak Pleven win · Yantra 2019 0–2 Spartak Pleven
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spartak Pleven (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Spartak Pleven (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Yantra 2019 (1X2) 46.7 60.1 -13.4
Draw (1X2) 28.7 25.2 +3.5
Spartak Pleven (1X2) 24.6 14.7 +9.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.2 +6.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.8 -6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.6% on Spartak Pleven (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.7%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Yantra 2019 (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Spartak Pleven (1X2) 6.04 6.04 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Bulgarian Second League
  • Fixture: Yantra Gabrovo vs Spartak Pleven
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.7% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.6%
  • xG (showing): Yantra Gabrovo 1.42 — Spartak Pleven 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 9 6 3 0 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 5 2 2 17
3 Yantra 2019 9 5 1 3 16
4 Fratria 8 4 3 1 15
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 9 4 3 2 15
6 Beroe 9 4 3 2 15
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 9 4 2 3 14
8 Marek 9 4 1 4 13
9 Nesebar 8 4 1 3 13
10 Rilski Sportist 9 3 3 3 12
11 Ludogorets II 8 3 2 3 11
12 Montana 9 3 2 4 11
13 Hebar 1918 9 3 2 4 11
14 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 8 3 2 3 11
15 Spartak Pleven 9 3 1 5 10
16 Sportist Svoge 9 1 4 4 7
17 Dobrudzha 9 1 3 5 6
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 9 21 8 +13 21
2 CSKA Sofia II 9 19 8 +11 17
3 Hebar 1918 9 18 17 +1 11
4 Nesebar 8 15 11 +4 13
5 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 9 15 15 0 14
6 Montana 9 13 16 -3 11
7 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 9 12 6 +6 15
8 Beroe 9 12 8 +4 15
9 Yantra 2019 9 12 9 +3 16
10 Fratria 8 11 6 +5 15
11 Marek 9 10 9 +1 13
12 Rilski Sportist 9 10 9 +1 12
13 Spartak Pleven 9 10 19 -9 10
14 Dobrudzha 9 9 14 -5 6
15 Ludogorets II 8 8 8 0 11
16 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 8 7 9 -2 11
17 Sportist Svoge 9 4 7 -3 7
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 9 3 30 -27 0
Second League Bulgaria. Second League Predictions