Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Atlético Madrid II vs Zaragoza

Atlético Madrid II vs Zaragoza Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Madrid II Atlético Madrid II
Oct 11, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.37
4 1.23
xG Accuracy: 23%
Zaragoza Zaragoza
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlético Madrid II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13235590

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Atlético Madrid II vs Zaragoza
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Madrid II 1.37 — Zaragoza 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zaragoza 7 5 1 1 16
2 Real Murcia 7 5 0 2 15
3 Villarreal II 7 4 2 1 14
4 Hércules 7 4 1 2 13
5 Alcorcon 7 3 3 1 12
6 FC Cartagena 7 3 3 1 12
7 Real Jaén 7 3 3 1 12
8 Antequera 7 2 4 1 10
9 Huesca 7 2 4 1 10
10 Ibiza 7 3 1 3 10
11 Atlético Madrid II 7 2 3 2 9
12 Real Madrid II 7 2 3 2 9
13 Sant Andreu 7 2 2 3 8
14 Gimnastic 7 2 2 3 8
15 Algeciras 7 2 1 4 7
16 Europa Fc 7 2 1 4 7
17 Águilas 7 1 3 3 6
18 Teruel 7 1 2 4 5
19 Rayo Majadahonda 7 1 1 5 4
20 Juventud Torremolinos 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zaragoza 7 16 10 +6 16
2 Villarreal II 7 15 9 +6 14
3 Atlético Madrid II 7 15 12 +3 9
4 Alcorcon 7 13 5 +8 12
5 Real Murcia 7 11 7 +4 15
6 Real Jaén 7 11 8 +3 12
7 Antequera 7 11 9 +2 10
8 FC Cartagena 7 10 5 +5 12
9 Huesca 7 9 9 0 10
10 Ibiza 7 9 9 0 10
11 Gimnastic 7 9 11 -2 8
12 Algeciras 7 9 13 -4 7
13 Real Madrid II 7 8 7 +1 9
14 Juventud Torremolinos 7 8 18 -10 2
15 Sant Andreu 7 7 8 -1 8
16 Águilas 7 7 12 -5 6
17 Hércules 7 6 5 +1 13
18 Europa Fc 7 6 11 -5 7
19 Rayo Majadahonda 7 5 8 -3 4
20 Teruel 7 3 12 -9 5
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions