Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Real Murcia vs Gimnastic

Real Murcia vs Gimnastic Statistics & Analysis

Real Murcia Real Murcia
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 62%
Gimnastic Gimnastic
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Murcia Real Murcia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659561

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Murcia win · Real Murcia 2–0 Gimnastic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Real Murcia vs Gimnastic
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Real Murcia 1.43 — Gimnastic 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal II 5 4 1 0 13
2 Alcorcon 6 3 3 0 12
3 Zaragoza 5 4 0 1 12
4 Real Jaén 6 3 2 1 11
5 Hércules 6 3 1 2 10
6 Real Murcia 4 3 0 1 9
7 FC Cartagena 5 2 2 1 8
8 Atlético Madrid II 6 2 2 2 8
9 Antequera 5 2 2 1 8
10 Real Madrid II 6 2 2 2 8
11 Gimnastic 5 2 1 2 7
12 Sant Andreu 5 2 1 2 7
13 Ibiza 5 2 0 3 6
14 Huesca 5 1 3 1 6
15 Águilas 6 1 2 3 5
16 Rayo Majadahonda 5 1 1 3 4
17 Algeciras 5 1 1 3 4
18 Europa Fc 5 1 1 3 4
19 Teruel 5 0 2 3 2
20 Juventud Torremolinos 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Alcorcon 6 13 4 +9 12
2 Villarreal II 5 12 5 +7 13
3 Atlético Madrid II 6 11 8 +3 8
4 FC Cartagena 5 8 4 +4 8
5 Zaragoza 5 8 5 +3 12
6 Real Jaén 6 8 5 +3 11
7 Real Murcia 4 8 6 +2 9
8 Antequera 5 8 6 +2 8
9 Real Madrid II 6 7 6 +1 8
10 Gimnastic 5 7 7 0 7
11 Ibiza 5 7 8 -1 6
12 Algeciras 5 7 11 -4 4
13 Juventud Torremolinos 6 6 16 -10 1
14 Hércules 6 5 5 0 10
15 Sant Andreu 5 5 5 0 7
16 Rayo Majadahonda 5 5 6 -1 4
17 Águilas 6 5 10 -5 5
18 Huesca 5 4 6 -2 6
19 Europa Fc 5 3 7 -4 4
20 Teruel 5 1 8 -7 2
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions